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2006- Log - Hurricane Florence
and Gordon
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.. we are
'liveaboards' aboard the Boat Dee Light .. our Home
Port is the Legacy Harbour Marina located in the
downtown area of Fort Myers Florida .. our Log of
Hurricane FLORENCE and GORDON .. is based on our experience as a liveaboard before,
during and after Hurricane FLORENCE and GORDON passes thru the
Atlantic Ocean east of the USA .. since neither of these
Hurricanes came close to our area our Log has become more of
a Historic Record of the Hurricanes ..
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Five Day Cone
Sunday September 03rd
Computer SHIP's Models
Sunday September 03rd
Atlantic Tropics Overview
Sunday September 03rd
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Sunday September 03rd - 12:30
pm
.. a tropical wave near 13N
39W, midway between Africa and the
Lesser Antilles Islands, appears to
be developing into a tropical
depression .. this wave was declared
"Invest 90L" last night by
National Hurricane Center ( NHC
) .. the wave has a pronounced
spin, and plenty of heavy
thunderstorm activity surrounding it
.. this activity is fragmented and
not concentrated near the center of
circulation, but it gradually
getting better organized .. at the
current rate of organization,
formation of a tropical depression
seems likely by tonight or Monday
morning ..
.. the Hurricane Track Models and
the Global models all agree on
tracking this system west-northwest
to northwest over the next 3 to 4
days before a ridge of high pressure
builds to the north of the storm and
turns it more to the west. The long
range GFS model portrays a very real
risk to the Bahamas and to the US
East Coast in about 9 to 11 days
(Around the 13th of September), so
this may be a storm to really keep
an eye on ..
05:00 pm .. the NHC stated
that the Tropical Wave has developed
into a Tropical Depression SIX
and is expected to become
Hurricane Florence shortly ..
the Five Day Forecast shows the
Depression headed towards the
Southeast Coast of the USA thus at
this time the Fort Myers in not
expected to be threatened .. but we
have learned that can change quickly
so for now our Hurricane Lines on
Dee Light will remain in place ..
Monday
September 04th - ( Labor Day
) - 09:00 am
.. Tropical Depression #6
which was located about 1300 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles has
changed little in organization
overnight and there is a broad
circulation associated with this
system. Currently, the depression
is in an area that has some
southwesterly wind shear from a
trough of low pressure to it's
northwest. This trough is
forecasted to do two things: One is
to inhibit strengthening over the
next day or two and two is to pull
it northwestward over the next
couple of days. In about 2 to 3
days time, this trough is forecasted
to pull out of the area and a ridge
of high pressure is forecasted to
build in to the north which will
allow this system to turn to the
west and to also strengthen. Based
on the current analysis, I suspect
this depression will intensify to
Tropical Storm Florence by Tuesday.
Slow strengthening is forecasted for
the next 3 days with more
significant strengthening possible
by Friday and Saturday ..
.. the
Hurricane
Track Models
all indicate that this system will
move northwestward over the next
couple of days in response to the
trough of low pressure to the north
and then the models forecast a bend
back to the west by about Thursday
or Friday as high pressure builds to
the north. The BAM models are the
most aggressive with the bend back
to the west, while the LBAR model
continues tracking it
northwestward. My best educated
guess would be a track close to the
A98E and BAMD models and this would
put this depression about 1000 miles
east-southeast of Nassau in the
Bahamas by Saturday morning ..
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Tropical Depression
SIX at 06:00 am
Tropical Storm Florence at
11:00 am
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Tuesday
September 05th
06:00 am -
Tropical Depression Six
is about 2376 miles from Fort Myers this morning .. and it is
having trouble making up its mind where its center should be ..
the center it organized around is getting competition from
another center of circulation about 400 miles to the southwest
Tropical Depression 6 has not strengthened since yesterday,
however, some increase in deep convection has been noted early
this morning. Even with this, the circulation with TD 6 is
large and rather disorganized, so strengthening today into
tonight should be very slow to occur. The depression remains in
an area that has southwesterly wind shear on the order of around
20 knots. This wind shear is associated with a mid-Atlantic
trough of low pressure. This trough is forecasted to persist
over the next couple of days before the computer models forecast
it to pull out of the area and leave a more favorable
environment for strengthening by about Friday. Based on the
current analysis, I suspect this depression will intensify to
Tropical Storm Florence by late Wednesday .. very slow
strengthening is then forecasted through Thursday with more
significant strengthening possible by Friday and Saturday ..
11:00 am .. Tropical
Depression Six got enough heavy thunderstorm activity
surrounding its center to be upgraded to Tropical Storm
Florence at 11:00 am EDT .. she is huge and she should be a
Hurricane by Friday .. a major Hurricane .. according to
at least two of the more reliable models .. oh and the storm's
center is further South than the Hurricane Center thought it
was, which could be bad news for Florida if Florence's expected
turn to the Northwest never happens ( although the
meteorologists say the ultimate path is still a bit unclear ) ..
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Tropical Storm Florence at
05:00 am
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Wednesday
September 06th
05:00 am -
YEA !! .. NOAA's Five Day Cone that came out at 05:00 am this
morning is great news for us Floridian's in Southwest Florida ..
the current proposed Track has Tropical Storm Florence
heading Northwest well away from Southwest Florida .. (( see
NOAA's Chart to the left )) and lets hope that it stays right
out in the Atlantic Ocean .. there has been a significant burst
of convection associated with Florence overnight and this
appears to be actually an interaction between Florence and a
developing upper level low and does not necessarily mean
strengthening. Florence is still experiencing anywhere between
10 and 30 knots of shear .. the trough of low pressure
responsible for this shear is beginning to fracture and an upper
level low is forming out of the fracture. This upper level low
pressure system is forecasted by the computer models to
retrograde and in turn reduce the amount of shear over Florence
.. the SHIPS intensity guidance forecasts Florence to intensify
to a 87 mph Hurricane by Saturday morning and a 104
mph Hurricane by Monday morning .. based on the current
analysis and model data, I suspect Florence will slowly
intensify today through Thursday and may intensify at a more
rapid clip beginning on Friday .. I think Florence will
intensify into a Hurricane by Friday afternoon and may reach
major Hurricane status by Monday or Tuesday ..
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Tropical Storm Florence at
11:00 pm
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Thursday
September 07th
05:00 am -
now here's a
sight to behold .. Florence curving away out to Sea .. after
expressing some skepticism the past couple of days a few of the
Blogers that I follow and the National
Hurricane Center
seems more convinced
it's really going to happen .. "AT THE MOMENT ... MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN." .. the Hurricane
Center has also been watching a
scary-looking Tropical Wave just east of
Florence known to the meteorologists as
Invest 91L,
although Jeff Masters at Weather
Underground just calls it
"Florence's little
brother."
..
.. but
at the moment it's not showing any signs
of making trouble yet,
the
hurricane center says:
"ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS." ..
Masters says the two systems are
do-si-do-ing right now, which
complicates the forecast:
"Some of
the computer models predict that 91L
will never escape the shadow of big
sister, following her on a recurving
path out to sea between Bermuda and the
U.S. East Coast and never developing
into a Tropical Storm .. however, some
of the models predict that when Florence
gets pulled sharply north, this will
open up enough separation between the
two storms to allow 91L to split away
and intensify."
10:00 am ..
Florence continues to struggle with
10-15 knots of wind shear today and
doesn't appear any stronger than
yesterday. QuikSCAT satellite
data
from this morning at 5:26am
showed only a few patches of 50 mph
winds .. compounding Florence's troubles
has been the presence of some dry air at
mid levels, which Dr. Jason Dunion of
NOAA's Hurricane Research Division
pointed out in a
Blog
yesterday .. the big questions with
Florence are, will she intensify, and
how close will she pass to Bermuda?
Well, the intensity forecast remains the
same, with the upper level low to the
west forecast to move off and allow a
lower shear environment for Florence to
intensify in .. the GFDL model
intensifies Florence to a strong
Category 2 hurricane at her closest
approach to Bermuda on Monday. However,
Florence has thus far resisted
intensification, so a more conservative
intensity forecast may be in order ..
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Tropical Storm Florence
Friday 11:00 am
Tropical Storm Florence
Friday
02:00 pm
Western
Atlantic Infared Satellite Image
- Friday
02:00 pm
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Friday
September 08th
09:00 am .. I can basically repeat
my dialog of the past four days .. Florence is a huge but
disorganized tropical storm .. despite the fact that wind shear
has decreased to 5-10 knots, Florence shows little sign of
intensification ..
QuikSCAT
data from this morning at 5:02am showed top winds of about 45
mph in some widely scattered pockets to the north of the center
.. there is still some dry air for the storm to contend with,
but SSTs are a very warm 29º C and the models are still
insisting the storm should intensify. It is a mystery why the
tropical atmosphere has been so resistant to tropical cyclone
intensification this year .. it's a happy mystery for Bermuda,
which figures to have a very close encounter with the core of
the storm on Monday. Given Florence's continued refusal to
intensify despite our expectations, I'd be surprised if the
storm affected Bermuda as anything stronger than a Category 1
hurricane. Newfoundland also needs to keep an eye on Florence;
some of the models are predicting she could brush that island
later next week. The Hurricane Hunters are due to fly their
first mission into Florence at 2am EDT Saturday ..
Elsewhere in the tropics .. there are no other threat
areas to discuss. The stationary front off the Carolina coast
may spawn another low pressure system that will try to develop
into a tropical depression over the next two days, but any storm
here will move quickly northeast out to sea and not affect North
Carolina. The long-range GFS is predicting that two more
tropical storms may develop off the coast of Africa over the
next two weeks, but any storms that develop here are likely to
recurve out to sea and never affect land ..
Saturday
September 09th
09:00 am ..
Florence
continues to have a very large circulation and it is
strengthening and getting better organized .. shear analysis
this morning indicates that shear values range from 5 knots over
her eastern quadrant to 15 knots over the western part of the
storm .. since it is a large storm, shear shouldn't be as much
of a factor as it would be if it were a small storm .. I do
expect steady intensification over the next 2 to 3 days before
colder water temperatures and strong westerly shear begins to
weaken her .. the SHIPS intensity model forecasts
Florence to intensify to a 90 mph hurricane in 24 hours a 109
mph hurricane in 48 hours and a 116 mph hurricane in 72 hours
.. the GFDL intensity model forecasts Florence to
intensify to a 75 mph hurricane in 24 hours, a 105 mph hurricane
in 48 hours and a 100 mph hurricane in 72 hours .. based on
this and Florence's current state, I think Florence will reach
hurricane status by late this afternoon or this evening and peak
at 110 to 115 mph in about 48 to 60 hours. This peak intensity
will at the same time that Florence reaches her closest point to
Bermuda .. UGH !! ..
The
Hurricane Track Models
are clustered closely together for the first 48 to 60 hours of
the forecast, but diverge quite a bit after 72 hours .. the
models start out clustered together on a track that takes
Florence either over or very close to Bermuda late Sunday night
or early Monday morning .. the models then diverge, with some of
the models tracking Florence northeastward to southern and
eastern Newfoundland on Wednesday, while some of the other
models turn Florence due east out to sea ..
Current satellite
imagery shows outflow expanding to the west-northwest of
Florence. The direction of the outflow is a good indicator of
which way a storm is going to move for the next 24 hours,
therefore, I suspect Florence will track west-northwest over the
next 18 to 24 hours, with a turn to the northwest and north
expected on Sunday .. I still think Florence will come very
close to Bermuda late Sunday night or Monday morning ..
residents and vacationers on the island of Bermuda need to be
aware that this is a very large storm in size and tropical storm
force winds may begin as early as this evening .. winds of at
least hurricane force can be expected on the island of Bermuda
late Sunday night and continuing into Monday morning. Wind
gusts of over 100 mph are possible across the island ..
preparations for this storm should be well underway and should
be completed by late this afternoon.
After passing
Bermuda, my thinking is for a track that is a compromise between
the ECMWF, GFDL, and NOGAPS model .. this type of track would
take Florence over eastern Newfoundland on Wednesday .. this
type of track will spare Nova Scotia from a significant impact,
but Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island could be significantly
impacted by this storm on Wednesday .. those of you in
Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island should pay very close
attention to the latest track forecasts with this storm .. with
all of this said, it should be noted that it wouldn't take much
of a deviation from this forecast track for Florence to
significantly affect Nova Scotia, so residents and vacationers
in Nova Scotia, especially those of you east of Halifax should
pay close attention to the latest track forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center ..
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all of the above images are from Saturday morning September 09th
Wave
Height Forecast
Five to ten foot seas will be
common in many near shore areas, and the
wave height forecast
from the global wave model run by the National Weather Service
predicts wave heights of 15-20 feet offshore the mid-Atlantic
and New England coasts by Tuesday. Bermuda can expects waves of
15-25 feet on top of a 6-8 foot storm surge on Monday when the
center of Florence passes.
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05:00 pm .. Bermuda braces for
building Florence
AP - HAMILTON,
Bermuda - Tropical Storm Florence intensified today as it
continued moving through the open Atlantic on a path toward
Bermuda.
Florence was expected to reach hurricane strength by the time it
hits the tiny British territory Monday, according to forecasters
at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, though it was too
early to tell whether it will make a direct hit.
"Even if the center misses Bermuda by a couple hundred miles,
this is a very large storm so there's likely to be some effect,"
said Mark Willis, a meteorologist at the center. "If not the
strong winds, there will definitely be some rough surf."
Bermuda issued a hurricane watch Friday, and the government
urged the territory's 65,000 residents to take precautions. That
watch likely will become a warning in the next few hours, and
Florence is expected to reach hurricane status later today ..
Sunday
September 10th
09:00 am ..
Florence
strengthened overnight as recon reports indicated steadily
falling pressures and higher and higher winds .. as of this
morning Florence is a Category One Hurricane .. I expect
that Florence will intensify at a steady pace today through
Monday before colder water temperatures and strong westerly
shear begins to weaken her by Tuesday .. the SHIPS
intensity model forecasts Florence to intensify to a 97 mph
hurricane in 24 hours, and peak at 109 mph in 48 hours before
weakening to a 93 mph Hurricane in 96 hours. Based on this and
Florence's current intensification .. I think Florence will
steadily intensify today into tonight, so that by Monday morning
she will have max winds of 115 mph .. some further slight
intensification is possible on Monday and she may peak at
120-125 mph on Monday evening, before weakening on Tuesday ..
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Bermuda Radar
The Tropics on
September 11th
Tropical Storm
GORDON
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Monday
September 11th
09:00 am ..
Hurricane
Florence is lashing Bermuda with winds just below hurricane
force .. the
Bermuda airport
at 10:55am local time had sustained winds
of 66 mph, gusting to 83 mph .. the Airport is at the extreme
eastern end of the island, and the large eye of Florence is
passing just to the west .. thus, the Western end of the Island
may be experiencing much higher winds. Bermuda is now feeling
the worst Florence has to dish out, and residents can rest
assured that a repeat of the pounding delivered by Category 3
Hurricane Fabian
in 2003 will not occur .. the primary threat from Florence is an
expected 6-8 foot storm surge, topped by large battering waves
up to 20 feet high .. Florence's winds should cause relatively
minor damage .. Bermuda's infrastructure is well able to
withstand winds of Category 1 force, since much of the utility
lines are buried underground, and the building codes demand that
structures be able to withstand 110 mph Category 2 hurricane
winds ..
Florence's appearance on satellite imagery has degraded
considerably this morning, probably due to an increase in wind
shear to 20 knots .. the Eye is no longer visible, and the upper
level outflow is not as impressive .. the Hurricane Hunters
reported a large gap on the south side of the Eyewall on their
recent passes, and this can be seen on the Bermuda radar ( see
to the left ) .. the Bermuda Radar failed at 4:07am EDT
this morning ..
05:30 pm - Gordon
on the way towards Bermuda .. the Hurricane Hunters
investigated Tropical Depression Seven this afternoon,
and found winds of 47 knots at their 1500 flight level at 3pm
EDT .. this implies surface winds of 40-45 mph, and TD 7 will
likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon at 5pm .. the
satellite appearance continues to improve, with the heavy
thunderstorm activity moving over the center of circulation and
low-level spiral bands starting to develop .. Wind Shear has
fallen to just 10 knots, the waters are a warm 29C, and some
continued development is likely today .. Gordon is likely to
follow a track similar to Florence, and may be a threat to
Bermuda .. however, most of the computer models indicate Gordon
will pass well to the east of the Island .. local Bermuda
residents have been heard to say UFFFFFDA !! ..
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.. the photos below
were taken on September 11th inside Florence by Randy Bynon
.. he was an Aviation Weather Forecaster for 15 years for the
Air Force .. he is now a Dropsonde Systems Operator and Load
Master flying with the Hurricane Hunters at Keesler AFB, MS ..
and he has been an Amateur Photographer for 20 years and is also
a Private Pilot ..t
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Tuesday
September 12th
09:00 am ..
Bermuda is cleaning
up after a brush with Hurricane Florence that brought
only minimal damage .. the eye of Florence passed 52 miles to
the west of the island at 10am Monday, bringing sustained winds
of 80 mph gusting to 110 mph to the eastern end of the island ..
Hurricane
Florence is transitioning into a extratropical storm this
morning as satellite imagery shows a storm that looks a lot less
tropical than it did 12 or 24 hours ago .. with that said, even
though this storm is going to be extratropical when it moves
near Newfoundland on Wednesday, it will still pack a punch with
very strong winds and heavy rain expected in southeastern
Newfoundland, St. Pierre & Miquelon and Prince Edward Island on
Wednesday .. those of you in Newfoundland, St. Pierre & Miquelon
and even Prince Edward Island should pay very close attention to
the latest track forecasts with this storm and prepare today for
very stormy weather on Wednesday ..
The next item I wanted to discuss is
Tropical Storm Gordon ..Gordon is pushing to the northwest
this morning and the
Hurricane Track Models
all agree on a path that will take Gordon harmlessly out to sea
over the next several days .. Gordon is forecasted to intensify
over the next few days and is forecasted by all of the intensity
models to become a hurricane in 24 hours and peak at 90 mph in
about 3 days .. based on the current trends with Gordon, I
suspect that a steady intensification will occur and hurricane
status will be achieved in a couple of days. I want to
emphasize that Gordon poses no threat to the United States
coastline.
I am also monitoring
a strong Tropical Wave and associated low pressure system
located about 250 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands ..
this system has shown increased signs of organization overnight
and I suspect it will be classified as a Tropical Depression by
sometime on Wednesday if not sooner .. the future track of this
system hinges a lot on a mid-Atlantic trough of low pressure
located at about 60 West Longitude .. the big question will be
whether this system recurves out to sea because of the steering
influence of the trough or will this system sneak under the
trough and continue pushing west .. it is a question that is
very difficult to answer, because it wont happen for another
week or so .. many of the long range global models do indicate
that this storm will indeed be turned out to sea in about a
week, but that remains to be seen .. until then, this system is
forecasted to push to the west over the next several days and
intensify as it does so ..
01:00 pm - we
now have Tropical Depression Eight .. UFFFFFDA !! .. based on
this morning's hurricane track models, it appears that we have
Tropical Depression 8. The track models forecast a general
westward motion over the next 3 days with some of the models
indicating a more northward component by days 4 and 5, while the
BAMM and BAMS forecast a more westward path by days 4 and 5 ..
as for forecasted intensity, the SHIPS intensity model forecasts
significant intensification to a 72 mph tropical storm in 48
hours, a 94 mph hurricane in 72 hours and a 118 mph hurricane in
5 days ..
11:00 pm -
Tropical Storm Gordon became Hurricane Gordon .. UGH !! ..
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Image
Above -
Saharan
Air Layer (SAL) analysis from 9Z ( 5am EDT ) Sep 13,
2006 .. the bright orange layers show where very air
air laden with Saharan dust lies ..
Note
that TD 8 has to contend with some dry air from the
SAL to its North and West, while Hurricane Gordon is
in a moister, more favorable environment ..
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Surf
is up Newport RI
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Wednesday
September 13th
09:00 am ..
Gordon
is pushing to the north-northeast this morning in the wake of
Hurricane Florence, which left a trough of low pressure behind
her. The
Hurricane Track Models
all agree on a track to the north-northeast and northeast over
the next several days, however, they disagree on the speed that
Gordon will depart. The fastest model is the UKMET model which
rapidly zips it to the northeast by days 3 through 5. The
slowest model by far is the GFDL model which slows Gordon down
to a near crawl by days 3 through 5. The reason for the
discrepency appears to be because of the model's handling of an
area of weak steering winds between high pressure to Gordon's
east and a trough of low pressure to his west. It appears that
Gordon may be stuck in an area that has weak steering winds for
a couple of days before a trough of low pressure picks him up
and scoots him out by about Monday or Tuesday. I want to
emphasize that Gordon poses no threat to the United States
coastline.
Tropical Depression #8
is poorly organized this
morning with a broad
circulation and a lack of
convection near the center.
The broad circulation and
poor organization of TD 8
will likely inhibit
strengthening over the next
couple of days and it may
also promote a more westerly
motion over the next few
days because this system is
weak. The
Hurricane Track Models
forecast a general
west-northwest course over
the next few days, with some
of the models forecasting
the beginnings of
recurvature out to sea,
while others actually
indicate a bend back to a
westerly motion by early
next week. Right now, it
appears that the models may
be forecasting a turn to the
northwest too quickly as TD
8 is moving due west, if not
a bit west-southwest and it
seems that the A98E and
CLIPER models may have the
best solution on the short
term forecast motion and
these two models forecast a
west-northwest motion over
the next five days and
forecast it to get to only
about 19 North Latitude by
day 5.
Two things come to mind: One
is that if this system stays
weak, then it will take
advantage of the low-level
flow which would steer it
much more to the west than
if it strengthened
significantly. Two is that
if this system stays at a
low latitude, then it will
likely miss the trough of
low pressure near 50 West
Longitude and be steered
further to the west.
Currently, it is doing both
(Staying weak and pushing
west to a little
west-southwest), so this is
a storm that will really
need to be watched closely.
Bottom line is that this
system is a long ways out
there and we have plenty of
time to watch it.
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Hurricane Gordon at
05:00 am
Tropical Storm
Helene at 05:00 am
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Thursday
September 14th
05:00 am ..
Gordon is
pushing to the northeast this morning and is forecasted to
gradually push out to sea over the next several days and Gordon
is not expected to be a threat to the United States coastline ..
Tropical Depression #8
intensified into Tropical
Storm Helene overnight
.. Helene is a rather
disorganized tropical storm
and this continued
disorganization will likely
inhibit significant
strengthening over the next
couple of days .. the
Hurricane Track Models
forecast a general
west-northwest course over
the next 24 to 36 hours with
a turn more to the northwest
thereafter .. the exception
is the A98E model which
forecasts a general westward
course over the next 5
days. Right now, it appears
that many of the models may
be forecasting too much of a
northwest turn since Helene
is not gaining as much
latitude as these models are
forecasting. It seems that
the LBAR, A98E, CLIPER,
NOGAPS and even the UKMET
model may have the best
solution on the short term
forecast motion and I
suspect that Helene will
follow a track somewhere in
between LBAR, CLIPER and
NOGAPS model which could put
Helene about 700 miles
east-northeast of San Juan,
Puerto Rico in 5 days or on
Tuesday morning.
Three things come to mind
this morning: One is
that if this system stays
weak, then it will take
advantage of the low-level
flow which would steer it
much more to the west than
if it strengthened
significantly. Two is that
if this system stays at a
low latitude, then it will
likely miss the trough of
low pressure near 50 West
Longitude and be steered
further to the west. Three
is that looking at the
overall picture, it is much
more likely for Helene to be
recurved out to sea than to
be steered into the US
coastline because of the
progressive nature of the
troughs of low pressure
coming off of the US East
Coast. Currently, Helene is
remaining weak and is also
staying on a westerly
course. Even though, the
odds are for her to
eventually recurve out to
sea, this storm really needs
to be watched closely.
Bottom line is that this
system is a long ways out
there and we have plenty of
time to watch it ..
NOTE - this is the end of
our FLORENCE and GORDON Log
..
.. 'click' on
Tropical Storm HELENE
to continue with our Logs ..
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