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2006- Log - Hurricane
ERNESTO
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.. we are
'liveaboards' aboard the Boat Dee Light .. our Home
Port is the Legacy Harbour Marina located in the
downtown area of Fort Myers Florida .. our Log of ERNESTO
is based on our experience as a liveaboard before,
during and after ERNESTO passes thru the Southwest
Florida area ..
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Friday
August 25th - The Hurricane Hunters visited Tropical
Depression Five this afternoon, and at 1:30pm EDT found a
surface circulation center and maximum sustained surface winds
of 40 mph, making this Tropical Storm Ernesto. Visible
satellite images from this afternoon show a a sheared system,
with the low level circulation center completely exposed. Upper
level winds from the northwest are creating 10-20 knots of
shear, which is keeping all the heavy thunderstorm activity
confined to the southeast (downwind) side. However, this heavy
thunderstorm activity is building towards the center, and the
storm has some solid spiral bands forming. The storm is
intensifying in the face of the shear.
Given the high
degree of uncertainty in Ernesto's intensity it is likely that
Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwest Haiti will get tropical
storm conditions on Sunday. Jamaica's airports will probably
close about 2am Sunday, and remain closed into late Sunday
night. Ernesto probably does not have enough time to intensify
to a hurricane before reaching Jamaica. Airports in the Cayman
Islands will probably close by late morning on Sunday, and
reopen Monday afternoon. Ernesto could be a Category 1 hurricane
for the Caymans.
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Friday
August 25th -
Max Mayfield to
retire as director of hurricane center
Max
Mayfield, whose calm voice but resolute manner
guided South Floridians and millions of others
through some of the worst hurricane seasons in
history, will retire as director of the National
Hurricane Center and intends to leave in
January, he told his staff this afternoon.
''No
one event has caused this,'' he told shocked
forecasters during the usual afternoon ''map
discussion'' to review conditions in the
hurricane zone. 'I've been here 34 years and as
Forrest Gump said in the movie, `I'm tired and I
want to go home.' ..
..
with the current forecast we have decided to
weather out Tropical Storm ERNESTO right
here at Fort Myers but we still have some time
to make a move if the conditions change at all
..
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Saturday August 26th -
The Hurricane
Hunters found a strengthening Tropical Storm Ernesto this
morning. Their final report at 5:30am EDT had a pressure of
997mb, good enough for 50 mph winds at the surface.
Water vapor
satellite loops show a large upper level low forming over the
western Caribbean, and this low is moving westward at nearly the
same speed as Ernesto. Counterclockwise flow of air around the
upper low is causing 15-20 knots of shear over Ernesto, and this
can be seen in the water vapor loop and
visible satellite loop
causing a flattening of the clouds on the west side of the
storm. However, the overall appearance of Ernesto on satellite
imagery is slowly improving, with upper-level outflow developing
on the east side, and more low-level spiral bands forming.
Long range radar animations
from Puerto Rico show these spiral bands. Rain amount of 1-3
inches have fallen across the island so far today, with isolated
totals as high as 8 inches. As long as Ernesto does not grow any
closer to the upper level low to his west, slow intensification
should occur the remainder of today.
As Ernesto passes south of Haiti today, the mountainous
southwestern peninsula could experience life-threatening flash
floods. This is common in this part of Haiti, even for modest
tropical storms. Deforestation of the hillsides has left them
little protection from floodwaters.
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Sunday August 27th -
Ernesto is now a
HURRICANE !! .. the first hurricane of the 2006 season. This
first hurricane of season appears likely to do something the
Hurricane Season of 2005 can't boast of--get its name retired.
Ernesto is delivering a deadly blow to Haiti, and Cuba and
Florida are next in line. The 6am Hurricane Hunter eye report
found surface winds of 75 mph, good enough for upgrading the
storm to a hurricane. The pressure fall has only been an
unspectacular 2 mb in the past 12 hours, but the improvement in
satellite appearance has been spectacular. An eye is now clearly
visible on infrared satellite imagery, and upper-level outflow
channels have opened to the north and south. Wind shear has
fallen to 5-10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone
(clockwise-rotating region of winds) has developed over Ernesto,
a highly favorable situation for strengthening.
.. the eye of Ernesto will pass just south of or over the
southwestern tip of Haiti today, pounding that impoverished
nation with hurricane force winds and rains of up to 20 inches.
I expect the death toll will be in the hundreds ..
.. aboard Dee Light we
started our Hurricane preparations ie filled our Water Tank, got
our Hurricane Lines ready, etc ... our Marina is also buzzing
with activity as many Boater are getting ready for the week
ahead ..
.. 05:00 pm - Ernesto's
proposed Track has turned to the East ( see Charts ) and Ernesto
was downgraded to a tropical storm with the 5pm advisory. The
center of the storm is just south of some very mountainous
terrain, and this is significantly disrupting Ernesto. The upper
level outflow still looks strong, wind shear is weak, and an
upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) is
still in place, so Ernesto will no doubt reorganize tonight once
he moves away from Haiti. However, given Ernesto's small size
and the difficultly he is having with Hispanolia, there is hope
that the expected 1-2 day traverse of Cuba will significantly
weaken him. It may take Ernesto a day or two to regain hurricane
strength once he emerges into the Florida Straits. This bodes
well for the Florida Keys, which may dodge another hurricane. I
think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he
have time to organize into a major hurricane ..
.. 08:00 pm -
Ernesto has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Haiti today and this has led to weakening and a
disruption in the circulation. At 8 pm EDT/7 pm CDT, the
maximum sustained winds with Ernesto was 50 mph ..
.. 09:00 pm
.. with the current forecast looking much better for our area we
have decided to stay right here at Fort Myers as ERNESTO
heads up the East Coast of Florida .. our 'window' of time to
move Dee Light is all but gone at this time but we still have
some time to make a move if the conditions change at all ..
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Monday August 28th -
Ernesto again took another turn to the East .. ( see Chart ) ..
the hurricane season of 2006 has claimed its first victim, a
woman washed away by Ernesto's storm surge in Haiti yesterday.
However, it appears that we have not had a repeat of the massive
flooding disaster of 2004, when Hurricane Jeanne brushed Haiti,
killing 3000. Ernesto is still pounding Haiti and the Dominican
Republic with relentless heavy rains as it moves ashore into
Cuba this morning. Rainfall amounts of 8 inches have been
reported in Barahona, Dominican Republic, and amounts as high as
20 inches may have fallen in Haiti ..
.. we drove to
Sanibel Island and took an early morning walk on the Beach
.. the Tide was out and there were a number of people on the
Beach .. ie a perfect 'Beach Day' .. if 'the birds' are any
indication of what is going on with the weather we do not have
anything at all to be concerned about .. once we were back to
our Marina we saw that many of the Boaters in the Marina are
getting 'things' ready for Wednesday ..
.. Ernesto is barely
a tropical storm, and I expect it will be a tropical depression
Tuesday morning when it pops off the coast of Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Given the great success of Hispaniola and Cuba
at weakening the storm, the threat to Florida is now much
reduced ..
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.. to the
left is one of the many Boats at our Marina ( Legacy
Harbour Marina ) getting ready for the Tropical
Weather that is heading our direction .. the Crew of Dee
Light now has all of our Hurricane Lines in place .. I
talked with Betty's son Danny who lives in Stuart
Florida .. he said that the ICW is filled with East
Coast Boats that are heading West ..
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.. 08:00 pm -
Ernesto continues its trek across Cuba, and has dumped over
8 inches so far at Guantanamo. No reports of injuries or damage
have come out of Cuba thus far, and Ernesto's top winds have
only been 40 mph for the duration of its trek. The storm has
maintained a large envelope of spinning clouds and moisture
around its center, and is already starting to fire up some heavy
thunderstorms north of Cuba as its center prepares to emerge
into the Florida Straits. However, the system is very
disorganized at present and will not be able to strengthen
quickly once it moves over water ..
.. 01:00 pm
.. since we and others have decided to weather out Ernesto
here at the Marina I talked with our Harbourmaster David and he
said that they will keep the Boaters Lounge open for anyone that
wants to get off their Boats during the Storm .. the Boaters
Lounge is located above the Marina's Office .. it is NOT a
Hurricane Shelter at all but has proven to be a good location to
go to if it gets too rough on the Boat ..
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Legacy Harbour Marina - Fort Myers Florida -
Monday afternoon .. the 'lull' ..
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'click'
Photo above for many More
Photos Before Landfall
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Tuesday August 29th
-
08:00 am .. a quick update on
Ernesto .. the latest Hurricane Hunter mission at 6:30am EDT
found only 45 mph winds at the surface, and a 1005 mb pressure.
The Hurricane Hunters earned their money today, as they reported
moderate turbulence during many of their legs. This often
happens in intensifying storms right next to land, as the air
flowing over the land to water is very turbulent. Ernesto is
slowly strengthening, but probably only has enough time to make
it to a 60 mph tropical storm before landfall on the mainland
Florida Peninsula in Everglades National Park. Satellite imagery
shows a slowly expanding area of intense thunderstorms near the
center, and some decent upper-level outflow on the east side.
There is dry air on the storm's west side, and this is being
pumped into Ernesto by a small upper-level low to is west. This
influence should wane today as the upper low weakens and moves
off .. you can see some ill-defined spiral bands on the
Key West radar,
but the storm's low-level organization is poor ..
11:00 am - the
latest forecast models are showing the 'Cone' moving to the West
a little are all calling for a landfall in the Everglades
tonight, a long passage up the spine of Florida, followed by a
re-emergence into the Atlantic and possible re-intensification
to a Category 1 hurricane before a second landfall in the
Carolinas ..
.. 03:00 pm -
the leading edge of the overcast from
Ernesto moved into the area for the first time ..
.. 05:30 pm
.. a spontaneous 'Docktail Party' took place on B-Dock .. the
discussion of the evening was .. yup
Ernesto ..
.. 08:00 pm
.. at the Marina ( Legacy ) the Skies became very calm and eerie
.. the photo to the left was taken from the Bow of Dee Light
looking Southwest down the Caloosahatchee River with part of
A-Dock in the foreground .. the photo was used by
NBC-2 TV
- Fort Myers
in their 11:00 pm New ..
.. 09:00 pm .. The
latest Hurricane Hunter report continues to indicate that
Ernesto is not strengthening .. the surface pressure remains
steady at 1005 mb, and the maximum sustained surface winds
steady at 45 mph. Ernesto's appearance on satellite
imagery is still improving, with upper-level outflow being
established to the north, and the size and depth of heavy
thunderstorm activity increasing .. the National Hurricane
Center just dropped all Hurricane Warnings for the State of
Florida ..
.. 09:30 pm
ERNESTO just
made landfall just South of Miami near Flamingo Florida ..
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'click'
Photo above for many More
Photos After Landfall
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Wednesday August 30th
- as
Ernesto heads up Central Florida today it will be a RAIN DAY
for much of Florida today .. the Rain Bands from
Ernesto are about 320 miles wide spanning from the Bahamas
to the Gulf of Mexico .. many of the Schools and business in
Fort Myers are closed today due to the Storm .. Tropical
Storm Ernesto waited until the final hours before
landfall to finally put its act together, much to the benefit of
South Florida. The pressure dropped from 1005 to 1001 mb as the
storm came ashore about midnight, but the winds did not have
time to adjust to the lower pressure, and Ernesto still had just
45 mph winds at landfall. A tropical storm in the developing
phase is a fussy thing, and a number of ingredients have to come
together just right for rapid intensification ..
06:00 pm .. Tropical
Depression Ernesto steamed north across Florida today,
crossing over Lake Okeechobee, headed for an exit from the
Florida coast north of Cape Canaveral .. the Rain Bands from Ernesto's
back side started to get stronger in the afternoon and lasted
well into the evening .. we ended up having dinner at The
Pier Side on Fort Myers Beach .. many of the local business
were closed but there were a few hardy younger people taking
advantage of the Surf .. and did the rains come down !! ..
09:00 pm ..
once Ernesto re-emerges into
the Atlantic early Thursday morning, it will re-intensify over
water. None of the forecast models or the official NHC forecast
are calling for this to become a hurricane, though. The passage
over Florida has weakened it to the point where it would take
more time over water than Ernesto will have. It is possible that
Ernesto will intensify very little, as happened when it popped
off the coast of Cuba. The most likely intensity at its second
landfall in South Carolina is 40-55 mph.
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Legacy Harbour Marina - Fort Myers Florida -
Wednesday afternoon ..
'Ernesto's
Rains' ..
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'click'
Photo above for many More
Photos Before Second
Landfall
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Thursday August 31st
- 05:30 am -
Ernesto moved over Florida yesterday and is now moving
over Atlantic waters and seems to have his sights set on the
Carolina coastline. As of 5 am EDT/4 am CDT this morning,
Ernesto has maximum winds of 50 mph and is forecasted by the
model consensus to track northeastward today and come ashore
around midnight tonight ..
this system has the
potential to be a
significant rainmaker
storm for areas from the
Carolinas northward
through the Mid-Atlantic
on Friday through
Saturday. Rainfall
amounts of up to 10
inches is possible in
some parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states and
this could cause
widespread flash
flooding .. as for
intensity, Ernesto is
forecasted to strengthen
today and at this time
is forecasted to come
ashore in northeastern
South Carolina and
southeastern North
Carolina as a strong
tropical storm with
winds of 60 to 70 mph.
Once Ernesto makes
landfall, he is
forecasted to weaken to
a tropical depression as
he moves northward into
the Mid-Atlantic states
and is forecasted to
become extratropical in
nature on Saturday ..
07:00 am .. at
Dee Light we are having
Trailing Rains from
Ernesto that are
moving from the West to
the East ..
10:00 am .. we
have been in contact
with fellow Boaters that
we know are in projected
path of ERNESTO
.. this is part of an
E-mail the we received
from Boating friends
DIAMOND SUN ..
We have remained at our
dock hoping for nothing
more than a tropical
storm.
Ernesto is due in here
at 2 am tonight. Kerry
took the top down
yesterday
in 30 mph winds. It
took 4 guys to do it.
We are expecting 50-70
kt. winds
tonght. Kerry put out
300 ft. of extra line in
spiderweb effect. These
docks are not near as
big as Centennial but we
are protected by a 6 ft.
bulkhead on our stern.
It looks like the eye
will come in somewhere
near
the NC-SC line which is
about 35 miles south of
us. There is one other
liveaboard here, a 48
ft. Ocean yacht. They
have put out no extra
llines.
The bridge over to our
island will stay open
but closed to boats. We
will
go up to the marina
bathrooms if things get
too bad on our boat.
Wish us
luck.
Kerry, Jane and Sun Dog
Surf City, NC
12:00 pm ..
Tropical Storm
Ernesto is gathering
strength, headed for a
landfall near the North
Carolina/South Carolina
border late this
afternoon .. Radar
animations from the
Charleston radar shows a
steadily organizing
system, with a strong
band of heavy rain
wrapping around the west
side of the center.
Ernesto may have a
partial Eyewall and be a
strong tropical storm
with 65-70 mph winds at
landfall .. wind
observations from
offshore buoys have been
as high as 30 mph
sustained wind ..
01:30 pm -
WILMINGTON, N.C. —
Tropical Storm
Ernesto's outer
bands reached the South
Carolina coast early
today as the
strengthening storm
threatened to sweep
ashore on top of
thunderstorms that have
been drenching the
Carolinas for over a day
.. The National
Hurricane Center issued
a hurricane watch today
for the area from South
Carolina's Santee River
to Cape Lookout in North
Carolina.
08:00 pm ..
Tropical Storm Ernesto
is near hurricane
strength, headed for a
landfall near the North
Carolina/South Carolina
border this evening. The
latest center report
from the Hurricane
Hunters at 3:37pm EDT
found a central pressure
of 991 mb, just 1 mb
higher than Ernesto's
pressure when he was a
hurricane south of
Haiti. Radar animations
from the
Wilmington radar
don't show an eyewall
forming yet, put the
intensity and number of
spiral rain bands is
increasing. Again, it is
a good thing Ernesto has
only a few hours over
water to intensify, or
this would have been a
Category 2 hurricane in
another day.
11:30 pm ..
Tropical Storm Ernesto
slammed ashore at
11:30pm EDT last night
near Cape Fear
(Wilmington) North
Carolina. Just prior to
landfall, the Hurricane
Hunters observed a
partial eyewall with 70
mph surface winds, but
Ernesto never made it to
hurricane strength.
.. below is an
E-mail from Boating friends (
SONG OF THE SOUTH )
.. it is a recap
of their ERNESTO experience ..
We put our boat in a
spider web of lines
at Plantation Key
Yacht Harbour in
Islamorada during
Ernesto.
All our lines should
be dried out by
today and stowed
away until next
time.
We plan to be
anchored 7 miles due
north of Grassy Key
(On the chart it
is known as Tri-Pod
Banks) for a few
weeks.
We have about 250
small cave and holes
in our Dingy GPS
where lobster
normally hides.
We will be out of
Wi-Fi and Cell phone
range for a while.
Our external Wi-Fi
antenna has worked
great at Plantation
Key on someone’s
unsecured Linksys
Network.
As we approach
another Wi-Fi signal
after leaving
Tri-Pod we will let
you know. We may
dive the area of
Sawyer Cut.
Plantation Key had a
lot of damage during
Wilma last year and
is in rough shape.
Faro Blanco in
Marathon is still
shut down.
David and Betty
Courtney ( SONG OF
THE SOUTH )
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'click'
Photo above for many More
Photos After Second
Landfall
Photo from DIAMOND
SUN
Photo from DIAMOND
SUN
Lincon Memorial
Washington DC
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Friday
September 01st
- 08:30 am -
Ernesto has brought heavy rain to North
Carolina--up to a foot in some areas--and an extensive area of 6-8
inches (Figure 1). Three tornadoes were reported in North Carolina
yesterday. One of them damaged the roof of a home near Morehead
City. Up to 1500 families needed to be evacuated from low-lying
areas in the state due to river flooding. However, no major damage
has been reported, and Ernesto's storm surge was only 1-3 feet where
it came ashore near Cape Fear. Cape Fear reported 70 mph wind gusts
last night as the center crossed land ..
06:00 pm .. Washington DC -
Ernesto swept into the region today without its hurricane
status but with enough rain and wind to cause at least one
serious accident and close schools.
Ten Montgomery County middle school students were injured
after a van skidded out of control at about 7:10 a.m. and hit
them at a bus stop in Silver Spring. Six of the students were
taken to Children's Hospital in the District with injuries
described as serious but not life-threatening.
"The van appeared to have lost control and skidded [and] ran
into the kids," said Montgomery County Fire Department spokesman
Pete Piringer.
The storm, which the National Weather Service downgraded to
a tropical depression at 10:30 a.m., also was a factor in a
fatal traffic accident in Colonial Heights in central Virginia.
The brunt of the storm is expected to hit this region this
afternoon and last through tomorrow morning.
The weather service also has issued a flash-flood watch for
the area through late this evening. Three to six inches of rain
and wind gusts of up to 45 mph are expected.
.. below is an
E-mail from Boating friends ( SANDMAN ) .. it is a recap
of their ERNESTO experience ..
Glad to hear you
dodged another one!
We are at Isle of
Hope Marina in Savannah. We had about 10 minutes of rain and 10
mph winds. Fortunately the storm was way east of here. We do
plan to go to Wilmington, NC, in another three weeks for a
Gulfstar Owner's Club
rendezvous, unless there are more storms brewing at the time.
We'll be back in
Legacy about October, 21, or so.
Rich and Nancy
09:00 pm ..
FORT MYERS FL - Ernesto leaves behind
flooding - Residents along Bedman Creek north of
Lehigh Acres woke up to flooding Thursday morning, and one man
believes an opened flood gate created the problem .. Water
managers, however, say a gate upstream was never opened and
heavy rains are to blame .. "We didn't have a flash flood," Mike
Denius said. "East County Water Management keeps dumping water
on us."
He said the water
level was normal when he went to bed Wednesday but had risen 4
feet by the time he woke up. Thursday afternoon, there was still
an inch of water in his yard, garage and the stables where he
boards 12 horses .. He said he suspected water managers had
opened a flood gate upstream from his house .. East County Water
Control District manager David Lindsay said the district has a
flood gate on the Hendry Canal, but it is being repaired and
can't be opened .. Between 6 and 8 inches of rain fell in Lehigh
between Wednesday morning and mid-day Thursday thanks to
Tropical Storm Ernesto, Lindsay said.
"We got a lot of rain," Lindsay said.
.. below is an
E-mail from Boating friends ( DIAMOND SUN ) .. it is a recap
of their ERNESTO experience ..
We had a tormenting
night with Ernesto. We decided at the last minute not to haul
Diamond Sun out going on the weather reports. Anchors Away
Boatyard assured us that we were doing the right thing. Anyway,
Kerry tied our boat in a spider web effect with 300 extra ft. of
line, removed the bimini top and canvas and stored everything
outside, inside. Both extra staterooms were packed with stuff.
We were only expecting 35-40 mile winds with maybe
over 50 mph gusts if that much. Instead, Ernesto steadily
gained strength over the warm water and came in right at a Cat.
I storm just 50 miles south of us. We got the worst side of the
storm and had 70 kt. winds here.
We left the boat around 10 pm
last night after Kerry started feeling queasy from the rocking
and went to the marina bathrooms for the duration. Usually it's
me that wants to leave. It was very uncomfortable situation with
uncomfortable chairs to sit in staring at a washer and dryer.
We missed the nice Captain's Lounge at Fort Myers. The lights
went out at 12:15 am. Our computer battery only lasted 12
minutes and we could barely pick up anything on our portable
TV. We paced the floor most of the night with the wind howling
outside and the rumbling of a heavy tin roof eating at our
nerves.
At 4 am we made it to our car and sat in it just to get
something comfortable to sit on until 5 am. Sun Dog would have
nothing to do with us. He looked at us with pitiful eyes like
why are you putting me though this torture. We returned to the
"shelter", gathered our things and headed for the boat. The
winds were blowing about 40 kt. about that time.
We found our
portable battery operated fan, turned it on us and went to bed.
I slept about 1 and 1/2 hours, too wired get into a deep sleep
and got up. Our power came on about 8 am. God bless the power
company for that favor. Kerry slept until about 10:30. Today
we have been trying to function and rode down to our beach
cottage to access the damage. We rode through sand
filled streets and saw little damage. Our cottage fared well
with only one shingle off the roof we could find, some torn
porch screening and an outside facia board torn down. The beach
erosian was pretty bad.
I am sending a couple of pictures.
Adam, the only thing we saw at your cottage was the swing under
the cottage was hanging funny. Ernesto on his way from Florida,
stopped by Fort Myers and didn't find us so he came up to NC
with a huge punch in our sails.
Needless to say we will retire
early tonight. Diamond Sun had no damage with just a couple of
minor leaks. Our boater liveaboard neighbors didn't fare as
well. They turned the gen on, slept through the thing, their
door blew open, drench the salon and ruined their
computer. They had major leaks all over their boat. They also
had several rental properties with major water problems. Guess
we were blessed as we battled a tormenting night.
Hope all of you fared well.
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