Dee Light Website

2006 - Hurricane Helene Blog

.. we are 'liveaboards' aboard the Boat Dee Light .. our Home Port is the Legacy Harbour Marina located in the downtown area of Fort Myers Florida .. our Blog of Hurricane Helene is based on our experience as a liveaboard before, during and after Hurricane Helen passes thru the Atlantic Ocean ..

Tropical Storm Eight Wednesday September 13th Tropical Storm Helene at 05:00 am Thursday September 14th	Thursday September 14th 05:00 am .. Gordon is pushing to the northeast this morning and is forecasted to gradually push out to sea over the next several days and Gordon is not expected to be a threat to the United States coastline .. Tropical Depression #8 intensified into Tropical Storm Helene overnight .. Helene is a rather disorganized tropical storm and this continued disorganization will likely inhibit significant strengthening over the next couple of days .. the Hurricane Track Models forecast a general west-northwest course over the next 24 to 36 hours with a turn more to the northwest thereafter .. the exception is the A98E model which forecasts a general westward course over the next 5 days. Right now, it appears that many of the models may be forecasting too much of a northwest turn since Helene is not gaining as much latitude as these models are forecasting. It seems that the LBAR, A98E, CLIPER, NOGAPS and even the UKMET model may have the best solution on the short term forecast motion and I suspect that Helene will follow a track somewhere in between LBAR, CLIPER and NOGAPS model which could put Helene about 700 miles east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico in 5 days or on Tuesday morning. Three things come to mind this morning: One is that if this system stays weak, then it will take advantage of the low-level flow which would steer it much more to the west than if it strengthened significantly. Two is that if this system stays at a low latitude, then it will likely miss the trough of low pressure near 50 West Longitude and be steered further to the west. Three is that looking at the overall picture, it is much more likely for Helene to be recurved out to sea than to be steered into the US coastline because of the progressive nature of the troughs of low pressure coming off of the US East Coast. Currently, Helene is remaining weak and is also staying on a westerly course. Even though, the odds are for her to eventually recurve out to sea, this storm really needs to be watched closely. Bottom line is that this system is a long ways out there and we have plenty of time to watch it .. NOTE - this is the end of our FLORENCE and GORDON Log .. 'click' on Tropical Storm HELENE to continue with our Logs ..
Hurricane Track Models	Thursday September 14th 05:00 am .. Helene has not strengthened at all over the last 24 hours due to the storm ingesting dry air and it may take some time for Helene to work out this dry air and build an inner core. I suspect that Helene will intensify slowly over the next couple of days with a more steady intensification by early next week .. Helene has not strengthened at all over the last 24 hours due to the storm ingesting dry air and it may take some time for Helene to work out this dry air and build an inner core. I suspect that Helene will intensify slowly over the next couple of days with a more steady intensification by early next week .. The Hurricane Track Models agree on a general west-northwest to northwest motion over the next to 3 days. After that, the models diverge quite a bit because of their handling of how much the subtropical ridge is going to break down. The NOGAPS model forecasts that the ridge will hang in and remain to Helene's north and promote a westward course, while the GFDL model forecasts that the ridge will break down and allow Helene to turn to the north and out to sea. For the last few days, the models have been forecasting a northwest turn too quickly and Helene has not been gaining as much as some of these models have been forecasting. It seems to me that the UKMET, CLIPER and NOGAPS model may have the best solution on the future track of Helene and this could put Helene about 675 miles east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico (23 North, 57 West) in 5 days or on Wednesday morning. Looking at the overall long range pattern, when it is all said and done, it is much more likely for Helene to be recurved out to sea than to be steered into the US coastline because of the progressive nature of the troughs of low pressure coming off of the US East Coast. Even though, the odds are for her to eventually recurve out to sea, this storm really needs to be watched closely. Bottom line is that this system is a long ways out there and we have plenty of time to watch it. I also wanted to mention about a subtropical low pressure system that is now beginning to develop off of the North Carolina coastline. This storm system is forecasted to push to the northeast over the next couple of days and be located southeast of New England late this weekend and early next week. All indications are that this system will remain subtropical and is not expected to acquire tropical depression or tropical storm status because environment conditions are unfavorable for tropical development in this area. This storm is, however, forecasted to bring rainy conditions and some gusty winds to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England over the next couple of days.
the Atlantic Sunday September 17th	Friday September 15th 05:00 am .. nothing much new with HELENE on Friday but then on .. Saturday September 16th 11:00 am .. Helene become a Hurricane .. HELENE intensified into a hurricane this morning, and now has a eye, well-formed low-level spiral bands, and some solid and improving upper-level outflow. Helene is over warm 27-28C waters, shear is a low 5-10 knots, and the storm should intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Monday. Helene may be a threat to Bermuda and/or the Maritime provinces of Canada, but the odds of a strike on the U.S. are less than 10%. History shows that the large majority of hurricanes that traverse this part of the Atlantic end up recurving. One very notable exception is the famed New England Hurricane of 1938, which followed a very similar path to Helene's current track. Two strong troughs of low pressure are expected to push off the East Coast over the next week. If the first trough does not pull Helene northwards far enough to recurve her out to sea, the second one should almost certainly finish the job--before Helene can make it all the way to the U.S. It is too early to tell what the risk might be to Bermuda; the exact strength of the first trough 4-5 days from now is uncertain, and will determine how far west Helene is able to penetrate. The latest run of the GFS model puts Helene very near Bermuda on Sunday September 24. Sunday September 17th 11:00 am .. Helene strengthens and is now a large and impressive hurricane, with a huge 50 mile diameter eye .. Helene continues to strengthen, but it appears that the storm will be no threat to land, with the possible exception of Bermuda .. the computer models are in two camps this morning--the GFS and BAMM models, which take the storm on a westerly track starting Monday, and the rest of the models, which show recurvature to the north .. the models differ in how they handle a weak trough of low pressure that is expected to pass to the north of Helene early this week .. if the GFS and BAMM are right, the trough will be too weak to pick up Helene, and high pressure will build in, forcing the storm to the west for several more days. The rest of the models think that the trough will be deep enough to turn Helene to the north .. these model solutions are more likely to be correct the stronger and larger Helene grows, since a larger storm will extend further north and higher in the atmosphere, making it more likely to feel the effects of the trough of low pressure. If this trough does miss picking up Helene, the storm has to avoid being pulled north by one or two more troughs in order to make it all the way to the U.S. East Coast. This is a pretty tall order this time of year, as the troughs coming off the East Coast are expected to get stronger and dive further south. The GFS model is predicting a trough late this week will turn Helene northwards, bringing the hurricane very close to Bermuda on Sunday or Monday of next week .. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic Hurricane Gordon is still out there, but is no threat to land .. there are no other threat areas to talk about .. GREAT !! ..
	Monday September 18th 11:00 am .. Hurricane Helene continues to intensify, and is now the season's second major hurricane .. Helene is over warm waters of about 28C, and under about 10-15 knots of wind shear .. these conditions favor intensification for another two days, and Helene could be the first Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic this year .. Helene is currently headed more north than west, following a cut little brother Gordon has made through the Bermuda High. However, this cut is expected to close up later today, and the Bermuda High will re-establish itself and force Helene more to the west. By Wednesday or Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure will be moving off the East Coast and should turn Helene more to the north .. it remains to be seen if this trough will be strong enough to finish the job and fully recurve Helene .. if not, the Bermuda High will build back in, forcing Helene more to the west again, and potentially allowing it to strike the Mid-Atlantic or New England coasts of the U.S., or the Maritime Provinces of Canada .. the models are VERY fuzzy at these long time scales, but the odds are that Helene would have yet another trough of low pressure to contend with before she could strike the coast .. the computer models in general have performed poorly with the long-range track of Helene, and I am putting more stock in the historical record of what similar hurricanes have done in the past .. check out the modified Historical Map of hurricanes that include all Category 1-5 hurricanes passing within 300 miles of Helene's current position .. this map offers us some reassurance that Helene will probably not make landfall in the U.S. or Canada--only one of the 16 storms plotted have done so, and this storm .. I still put Helene's chances of a U.S. landfall at about 10%. Bermuda is at considerably higher risk, but the storm is still too far away to have a very good idea of this risk .. Bermuda is a small target, and the five day track forecast errors are on the order of 350 miles .. Tuesday September 19th 10:00 am .. Hurricane Helene remains a powerful Category 3 hurricane, but we are now confident that this storm presents no threat to land. Beginning with yesterday morning's computer model runs, all of the reliable models have been consistently been predicting that the next trough of low pressure moving over the Atlantic will be strong enough to turn Helene northwards, then recurve her out to sea. My confidence in this forecast is high, because the NOAA P-3 and Gulfstream IV jet have been probing Helene for the past two days as part of a research mission into how dry Saharan air affects hurricane intensification (the SALEX project). The computer models have had the advantage of having this high-quality data available for their runs. Given this factor, plus the high degree of unanimity of the models in turning Helene northeast over multiple runs, we can be confident that Helene poses no threat to the U.S., Bermuda, or Canada. Helene is over warm waters of about 28C, and under about 5-10 knots of wind shear. These conditions favor intensification for another two days, and Helene could be the first Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic this year. .. in the rest of the tropical Atlantic a non-tropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has a slight chance of development as it drifts slowly east. Most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop later this week in the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands ..
	Wednesday September 20th 05:00 am .. Hurricane Helene is a borderline Category 2/3 hurricane this morning and it appears that increasing southwesterly wind shear will put the brakes on any more intensification, in fact, Helene is forecasted to weaken slowly over the next few days .. I continue to be quite confident in the future track of Helene. It appears that Helene will turn to the north and then northeast over the next 36 to 48 hours and she is forecasted to be of no threat to Bermuda, Atlantic Canada or the United States. I have no reasons to disagree with the hurricane track models or the global forecast models as I expect a trough of low pressure will pick Helene up and scoot her out to sea over the next few days. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, I am going to be watching a couple of tropical waves that are either in the eastern Atlantic or are going to be coming off of the coast of Africa. The first tropical wave that I will be watching is currently located about 450 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The Hurricane Track Models indicate that this system will push to the west-northwest over the next 5 days and be of no threat to any land masses. Satellite imagery indicates that there has been an increase in thunderstorm activity overnight and environmental conditions are favorable for tropical development, so it is something that we will be watching closely .. The second tropical wave is forecasted to emerge off of the coast of Africa in about 36 to 48 hours and the global models are forecasting tropical cyclone development from this wave late this weekend or early next week. Some of the long range computer guidance suggests that both tropical waves that we are watching may be players in the US weather in about 10 to 15 days. This is something that I will be watching very closely and I will keep you updated on the latest. Thursday September 21st 09:00 am .. Hurricane Helene has begun her journey on a northward course and I am very confident that she will continue on a north and northeast path over the next few days and will be of no threat to Bermuda, Atlantic Canada or the United States .. sooooo this will conclude our Hurricane Helene Blog / Log unless conditions change ..

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