|
2006 -
Tropical Storm ISAAC
Blog
|
|
.. we are
'liveaboards' aboard the Boat Dee Light .. our Home
Port is the Legacy Harbour Marina located in the
downtown area of Fort Myers Florida .. our Blog of
Tropical Storm ISAAC
is based on our experience as a liveaboard before,
during and after
Tropical Storm ISAAC passes thru the
Tropical Storm ISAAC ..
|
|
Saturday
September 23rd
11:00 am
.. a tropical wave featuring a broad
surface circulation about 1100 miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. There is
more heavy thunderstorm activity, and the cloud pattern is a bit
more circular.
QuikSCAT
winds from this morning's 5:11am EDT pass were 25-35 mph
in a few isolated patches. This system (96L) probably needs at
least another two days to organize into a tropical depression as
it moves northwest over the open Atlantic. The storm is moving
towards a weakness in the Bermuda High created by Hurricane
Helene. Most of the forecast models indicate that this break
will close up as Helene races off to the northeast over the next
few days. The Bermuda High will then re-establish itself and a
high pressure ridge will build in, forcing 96L more to the
west-northwest. A long range threat to Bermuda is possible late
next week. I think it is likely that a trough of low pressure
will recurve 96L northwards and out to sea before it reaches
Bermuda, though. The storm is not a threat to the Caribbean or
U.S. Two models--the GFDL and Canadian--forecast that 96L will
eventually become a hurricane. The storm is over warm waters,
and under just 10 knots of wind shear.
Tuesday
September 26th
11:00 am
.. well it sure was great to watch a
football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night,
and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast ! .. the
hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by
the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out
there today that causes me any concern .. the tropical wave
(96L)
we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of
the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has the potential to
develop into a Tropical Depression, but is not expected
to threaten any land areas .. wind shear has dropped from 30
knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able
to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center
this morning .. the storm is in a moist environment, and the
ocean beneath is warm .. the Canadian model is still the only
model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it
appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next
two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical
depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this
system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching
the island. |
 |
Thursday
September 28th -
An Isaac is born
08:00 am .. and so it's time to say hello to
Tropical Storm Isaac, the latest
entry in a so-far lackluster hurricane season. The key phrase from
the hurricane center is: "NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND."
11:00 am
.. a Tropical Wave moving through
the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands this morning has been
declared "Invest 97L" by the National Hurricane Center. Although
small, the wave has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity
to be of concern. The wave is moving west-northwest at 15 mph,
and will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to Antigua, St.
Maarten, and surrounding islands today, and Puerto Rico on
Friday.
Martinique radar
shows a moderate area of heavy rain moving through the
islands.
Antigua
has seen some heavy rain this morning and gusty winds.
QuikSCAT
winds at 6:22am EDT this morning showed a large area of
20-25 mph winds under these thunderstorms, and a strong wind
shift, but not a closed surface circulation. The wave is under
about 10 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to
remain below 15 knots the next two days. The low shear and warm
waters the system is over may allow some continued development.
The computer models are not tracking this system very well
because it is so small, but it appears likely that the storm
will pass just north of the Bahamas and then turn north. The
storm will probably not hit the U.S. East Coast. The earliest
this could become a tropical depression is Sunday ..
Friday
September 29th
11:00 am
.. Tropical Storm Isaac is actually
moving towards the west-northwest early this morning in response
to a deep layered ridge that has built to the north of the
storm. All of the models forecast Isaac to remain on this
west-northwest course for the next 2 days or so and then they
all forecast a turn to the north and northeast in response to a
deep trough of low pressure that will be moving off of the US
East Coast. Even though, Isaac will be moving to the
west-northwest over the next couple of days, the turn is
expected and Isaac is of no threat to the United States,
however, there is a chance that Isaac could merge with a
developing area of low pressure that will be pushing off of the
southern New England coast on Monday morning. If this does
occur, then a bout of heavy rains and strong winds could affect
areas including Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia
and possibly even coastal areas of downeast Maine on Monday and
Tuesday. I will be monitoring the future track of Isaac closely
and I will keep you all updated on the latest.
The tropical wave
located just north of
the northern Leeward
Islands has diminished
in intensity over the
last 12 to 18 hours.
The global models are in
good agreement on this
system being swept out
to sea by the same
trough of low pressure
that is forecasted to
catch Isaac. Based on
the current and
forecasted upper air
wind charts, I agree
with the model
assessment that it will
be swept out to sea.
Therefore, even though,
there is a remote chance
that this system will
develop into a
depression, it is
forecasted to recurve
out to sea over the next
several days.
The area that we will
really need to watch is
the western Caribbean
near the Yucatan
Peninsula next week. I
know I keep saying this,
but I feel strongly that
this is a key area to
watch over the next 7 to
10 days. All of the
global models continue
to forecast lowering
barometric pressures
over the western
Caribbean in response to
a strong cold front that
is forecasted to stall
out over this area next
week. The
ECMWF Model
continues to forecast
lowering barometric
pressures over the
western Caribbean next
week and it forecasts
the upper air pattern to
shift late next week to
a southeast to northwest
flow from the Caribbean
to the Gulf of Mexico.
This type of upper air
flow suggests that
anything that gets going
down in the Caribbean
could be steered into
the Gulf of Mexico in
about 8 to 14 days.
This is something that I
am going to monitor very
closely and keep you all
updated.
|
| |
Saturday September 30th
11:00 am
.. Hurricane Isaac became the season's fifth hurricane
this morning, thanks to some lighter wind shear, warmer waters,
and moister air. Isaac has another day or two of favorable
conditions before cooler waters and high wind shear weaken the
hurricane. Isaac is expected to pass near southeast Newfoundland
on Monday as a tropical storm with 55 mph winds.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form in the
mid-Atlantic south of the Azores Islands by Wednesday, and this
system may make the transition to a tropical storm as it drifts
south over the open Atlantic late in the week. There are no
other threat areas to discuss--the tropical wave (97L) that we
were tracking yesterday, north of Puerto Rico, has fallen apart.
Monday
October 02nd
11:00 am
.. Hurricane Isaac
is pushing to the northeast this
morning and is forecasted to move over southeastern
Newfoundland this evening as a tropical storm. Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect for the Avalon Peninsula, this
includes the cities of St. Johns and Cape Race. Heavy
rainfall and strong winds can be expected across the warning
area this afternoon through tonight.
The rest of the tropics remain
quiet, however, I will be watching a couple of areas over
the next week or two:
The first area of
concern is an area from
Cuba northeastward to
the Bahamas. This area
will be at the tail end
of a dying front and
many of the global
models, including the
GFS, Canadian, ECMWF and
NOGAPS models forecast a
storm system to form in
between the Bahamas and
Bermuda late this week
and this weekend and
then push northeastward
next week. It is
entirely possible that
this system could
acquire tropical or
sub-tropical
characteristics since it
will be over warm ocean
waters. This is
something that I will be
keeping an eye on this
week and keep you all
updated.
The second area that I
will be watching is the
Bay of Campeche and the
western Caribbean. All
of the global models are
forecasting lowering
barometric pressures
over the western
Caribbean and Bay of
Campeche in response to
a departing cold front
that will be moving off
of the US East Coast
late this week. Based
on the consistancy in
the model's forecast of
lowering pressures in
this area. I think it
is very possible that we
will see tropical
development in this area
within the next 7 to 10
days.
This is something that I
am going to monitor very
closely and keep you all
updated .. unless
conditions change this
will complete this Blog
..
|
|
