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Marv's Tropical Weather Reports 
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above - Tropical Mess area
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above - Tropical mess yuck !
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Western Atlantic activity
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above - Gulf area
update - 2015-04-11   
our tropical weather experts have had their annual pre tropical weather workshop and have come out with their revised forecast for our 2015 Tropical Weather season .. the updated forecasts below for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season have been issued by Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk .. I want to briefly go over both forecasts with you and then give you my latest thoughts on what the 2015 Hurricane Season may have in store ..
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heads up - before I getting into the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season PLEASE PREPARE for this hurricane season the same way you would for any other season no matter how many storms are forecast .. it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to make a season very bad for any one person ..
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on April 09th Colorado State University updated their forecast fot the 2015 season .. the link below is their report ..
 http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2015/apr2015/apr2015.pdf 
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good news - the biggest item of note in their forecast is that they are expecting one of the least active seasons in quite some time and that at least a moderate El Niño will be in place during much of the hurricane season ..
bottom line - as for numbers, the forecast from Colorado State University is calling for 7 named storms, 3 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 1 of those hurricanes becoming a major hurricane .. one item of important note is that a El Niño does not impact the Gulf of Mexico storms and is mainly a impact for the Caribbean and the part of the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa .. this is important and will be discussed more below ..
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Tropical Storm Risk’s Updated Forecast 
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2015.pdf 
Tropical Storm Risk is forecasting a total of 11 named storms, 5 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes .. the main inhibitor for the 2015 Hurricane season could be stronger than average wind shear and cooler than average sea surface temperatures from the Caribbean Sea through the central and eastern Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa ..
my thoughts - 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season ..
first and foremost I am not calling for this season to be quiet but instead am agreeing with the fact that we are looking at a hurricane season with a low overall number of storms due to a combination of factors including moderate El Niño conditions cooler than average ocean water temperatures across the Caribbean and the Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and a forecast of higher than average wind shear conditions across the Caribbean ..
the reason why I am not calling for this season to be quiet is because many past seasons with a low number of storms have had a major hurricane landfall on the United States .. ie examples are Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965, Alicia in 1983, Bob in 1991 and Andrew in 1992 ..
in my opinion I do think that the Caribbean and the Main Development Region (the area of the Atlantic from the Lesser Antilles to the coast of Africa) will be very hostile to tropical development during the 2015 Hurricane Season .. overall the impact to the Caribbean looks much lower than average this year due to very dry air and cooler than average ocean temperatures from the Caribbean to Africa .. with that said, please still prepare for this hurricane season, in case you are impacted by a tropical cyclone ..
as for the Gulf of Mexico, the area off of the US East Coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda, I continue to strongly believe that these are the areas that will be the focus for the development of tropical storms and hurricanes this year .. in fact, I think that we will see at least one hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this coming hurricane season ..
one strong analog year that seems to match the current setup continues to be 1957 .. ther analog years are 1965, 1991, 1993, 1994
I still think that we will have a quick starting season with the possibility of 1 or even 2 tropical cyclones during June. In fact, one of these June storms may end up making landfall somewhere along the US Gulf coast .. this is very analogous to 1957 where we had Hurricane Audrey make landfall on the upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana in late June ..
one other note is that the ocean water temperatures continue to be very warm around Florida, the Bahamas, and across the Gulf of Mexico .. this sort of pattern says to me that we are going to have to watch for tropical development close in to the US coastline in addition, we may also have to watch out for systems intensifying quickly just before they make landfall, especially in the Gulf of Mexico ..
below are updated region by region breakdown with maps of potential activity and threat assessment
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Eastern Atlantic - it appears that the eastern Atlantic east of 50 West Longitude may be quiet this year with below average activity .. the ocean water temperatures across the eastern Atlantic are colder than average and it appears that it may remain that way right into much of the Hurricane season ..
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Caribbean (two images below) - below average activity looks likely across the entire Caribbean this hurricane season with most of the activity potentially occurring north of the Caribbean ..
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Gulf Of Mexico  (two images below) - I think that the Gulf of Mexico could be open to tropical cyclone development this hurricane season as it is extremely unusual to have two straight hurricane seasons in a row with no more than one weak tropical storm .. in addition, ocean water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are already well above average, especially in the central Gulf of Mexico .. these above average ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are forecast to remain above average this summer into the fall and any homegrown type systems coming off of fronts would be able to feed off of these warm waters .. I have concerns for the potential for rapidly intensifying storms as they approach the US Gulf Coast this year ..
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US East Coast and the Bahamas (two images below) - ocean water temperatures off of the US East coast and in the Bahamas are forecast to be warmer than average this hurricane season .. I think that we will see a fair amount of tropical activity north of where you would normally find development in the deep tropics .. this means we will likely see development in close to the US East Coast and near the Bahamas .. this would potentially open up the entire US East Coast and the Bahamas to impacts from tropical storms/hurricanes .. I think that we will need to watch close to home for those homebrew type systems that form at the end of fronts or from upper level low pressure systems ..
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bottom bottom line - I will end this by saying once again that it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to make a season very bad for any one person. .. please prepare the same way for every season, no matter what .. you can prepare by finding out about your evacuation zone, going out and getting shutters to protect your home, going out to shop for hurricane supplies and finally going to your insurance agent and make sure you are insured properly and this includes flood insurance ..
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Marv's Daily Virtual Buoy Weather Reports and Tropical Weather Reports
on a daily basis for 10 plus years we have been providing by email our compilation of tropical weather and buoy reports to fellow boaters and boating enthusiasts .. these emails are sent strictly as a service to boaters who are traveling offshore in order to assist them with their cruising plans and help ensure a safer and more comfortable voyage when planning their travels in coastal waters ..

initially we began our daily reports with a small group of like-minded cruisers but strictly thru word-of-mouth our 'renown and fame' with the relative ease of use and accuracy of the reports has led to the point where we now maintain names and addresses of well over 1000 boaters and non boaters on our email list ..
there is no charge for our service but we do accept donations ..
via PayPal, VISA or MasterCard
Carol and Marv Market
M/V Dee Light
Box 1628
Fort Myers, FL 33902-1628
Marv (cell) (239) 560-1166
Carol (cell) (239) 560-3876
Bahamas (cell) - 242-431-0719

eMail address: marvboater1@aol.com
website -
www.DeeLightWebsite.com
Home Port
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2044 West First Street
Fort Myers, FL 33901
phone (239) 461-0775
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