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above
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Tropical Mess area
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above
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Tropical
mess yuck !
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Western Atlantic activity
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above
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Gulf area
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update - 2015-04-11
our tropical weather experts
have had their annual pre
tropical weather workshop
and have come out with their
revised forecast for our
2015 Tropical Weather season
.. the updated forecasts
below for the 2015 Atlantic
Hurricane Season have been
issued by Colorado State
University and Tropical
Storm Risk .. I want to
briefly go over both
forecasts with you and then
give you my latest thoughts
on what the 2015 Hurricane
Season may have in store ..
.
heads up -
before
I getting into the 2015 Atlantic
Hurricane Season PLEASE
PREPARE for
this hurricane season the same
way you would for any other
season no matter how many storms
are forecast .. it only takes
one tropical storm or hurricane
to make a season very bad for
any one person ..
.
on April 09th
Colorado State
University updated
their forecast fot the
2015 season .. the link
below is their report ..
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2015/apr2015/apr2015.pdf
.
good news - the
biggest item of note in
their forecast is that
they are expecting one
of the least active
seasons in quite some
time and that at
least a moderate El
Niño will be in
place during much of the
hurricane season ..
bottom
line - as for
numbers, the forecast
from Colorado State
University is calling
for 7 named storms, 3 of
those storms becoming
hurricanes and 1 of
those hurricanes
becoming a major
hurricane .. one item of
important note is that a
El Niño does not impact
the Gulf of Mexico
storms and is mainly a
impact for the Caribbean
and the part of the
Atlantic between the
Lesser Antilles and the
western coast of Africa
.. this is important and
will be discussed more
below ..
.
Tropical Storm Risk’s
Updated Forecast
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2015.pdf
Tropical Storm Risk is
forecasting a total of
11 named storms, 5 of
those storms becoming
hurricanes and 2 of
those hurricanes
becoming major
hurricanes .. the main
inhibitor for the 2015
Hurricane season could
be stronger than average
wind shear and cooler
than average sea surface
temperatures from the
Caribbean Sea through
the central and eastern
Atlantic between the
Lesser Antilles and the
west coast of Africa ..
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my
thoughts -
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
..
first and
foremost I am not calling for
this season to be quiet but
instead am agreeing with the
fact that we are looking at a
hurricane season with a low
overall number of storms due to
a combination of factors
including moderate El Niño
conditions cooler than average
ocean water temperatures across
the Caribbean and the Atlantic
between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles and a forecast of
higher than average wind shear
conditions across the Caribbean
..
the reason
why I am not calling for this
season to be quiet is because
many past seasons with a low
number of storms have had a
major hurricane landfall on the
United States .. ie examples are
Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965,
Alicia in 1983, Bob in 1991 and
Andrew in 1992 ..
in my
opinion I do think that the
Caribbean and the Main
Development Region (the area of
the Atlantic from the Lesser
Antilles to the coast of Africa)
will be very hostile to tropical
development during the 2015
Hurricane Season .. overall the
impact to the Caribbean looks
much lower than average this
year due to very dry air and
cooler than average ocean
temperatures from the Caribbean
to Africa .. with that said,
please still prepare for this
hurricane season, in case you
are impacted by a tropical
cyclone ..
as for the
Gulf of Mexico, the area off of
the US East Coast, the Bahamas
and Bermuda, I continue to
strongly believe that these are
the areas that will be the focus
for the development of tropical
storms and hurricanes this year
.. in fact, I think that we will
see at least one hurricane in
the Gulf of Mexico this coming
hurricane season ..
one strong
analog year that seems to match
the current setup continues to
be 1957 .. ther analog years are
1965, 1991, 1993, 1994
I still
think that we will have a quick
starting season with the
possibility of 1 or even 2
tropical cyclones during June.
In fact, one of these June
storms may end up making
landfall somewhere along the US
Gulf coast .. this is very
analogous to 1957 where we had
Hurricane Audrey make landfall
on the upper Texas coast and
across southwestern Louisiana in
late June ..
one
other note is that the ocean
water temperatures continue to
be very warm around Florida, the
Bahamas, and across the Gulf of
Mexico .. this sort of pattern
says to me that we are going to
have to watch for tropical
development close in to the US
coastline in addition, we may
also have to watch out for
systems intensifying quickly
just before they make landfall,
especially in the Gulf of Mexico
..
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below are
updated region by region
breakdown with maps of potential
activity and threat assessment
.
Eastern Atlantic -
it appears that the
eastern Atlantic east of 50 West
Longitude may be quiet this year
with below average activity ..
the ocean water temperatures
across the eastern Atlantic are
colder than average and it
appears that it may remain that
way right into much of the
Hurricane season ..
.
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Caribbean
(two images below)
- below average activity looks
likely across the entire Caribbean this
hurricane season with most of the
activity potentially occurring north of
the Caribbean ..
.
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Gulf Of Mexico
(two images below)
- I think that the Gulf
of Mexico could be open to
tropical cyclone development
this hurricane season as it is
extremely unusual to have two
straight hurricane seasons in a
row with no more than one weak
tropical storm .. in addition,
ocean water temperatures in the
Gulf of Mexico are already well
above average, especially in the
central Gulf of Mexico .. these
above average ocean temperatures
in the Gulf of Mexico are
forecast to remain above average
this summer into the fall and
any homegrown type systems
coming off of fronts would be
able to feed off of these warm
waters .. I have concerns for
the potential for rapidly
intensifying storms as they
approach the US Gulf Coast this
year ..
.
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US East Coast and the
Bahamas
(two images below) -
ocean water temperatures off of
the US East coast and in the
Bahamas are forecast to be
warmer than average this
hurricane season .. I think that
we will see a fair amount of
tropical activity north of where
you would normally find
development in the deep tropics
.. this means we will likely see
development in close to the US
East Coast and near the Bahamas
.. this would potentially open
up the entire US East Coast and
the Bahamas to impacts from
tropical storms/hurricanes .. I
think that we will need to watch
close to home for those homebrew
type systems that form at the
end of fronts or from upper
level low pressure systems ..
.
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bottom bottom line -
I will end this
by saying once again
that it only takes one
tropical storm or
hurricane to make a
season very bad for any
one person. .. please
prepare the same way for
every season, no matter
what .. you can prepare
by finding out about
your evacuation zone,
going out and getting
shutters to protect your
home, going out to shop
for hurricane supplies
and finally going to
your insurance agent and
make sure you are
insured properly and
this includes flood
insurance ..
.
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Marv's
Daily Virtual Buoy Weather Reports and
Tropical Weather Reports
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on a daily basis for 10
plus years we have been providing by
email our compilation of tropical
weather and buoy reports to
fellow boaters and boating enthusiasts
.. these emails are sent strictly as a service
to boaters who are traveling offshore in
order to assist them with their cruising
plans and help ensure a safer and more
comfortable voyage when planning their
travels in coastal waters ..
initially we began our daily reports
with a small group of like-minded
cruisers but strictly thru word-of-mouth
our 'renown and fame' with the relative
ease of use and accuracy of the reports
has led to the point where we now
maintain names and addresses of well
over 1000 boaters and non boaters on our email list ..
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donations ..
via PayPal, VISA or MasterCard
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