Tropical Weather Report
- Hurricane Irene
updated
- 2011-08-20 thru 2011-08-31
above -
The National Hurricane Center
forecast for Hurricane Irene
issued five days before it hit
Long Island, NY, compared with
the actual track of Irene. The
landfall locations along the
coasts of North Carolina, New
Jersey, and New York were pretty
much spot-on, though the time of
arrival was off by a few hours.
The NOAA Environmental
Visualization Laboratory has a
nice satellite animation of the
storm's track superimposed on
the NHC's cone of uncertainty
forecast.
Well, the official NHC track
forecast for Irene was
remarkably good; the 5-day
forecast was pretty much spot-on
for landfall locations, though
the timing of when the storm
would arrive at the coast was
off by a few hours (Figure 1.)
This remarkably accurate
forecast undoubtedly reduced the
costs of unnecessary
preparations, and probably saved
many lives. NHC track forecasts
have improved by over 50% since
1990. The average error in a
24-hour forecast was about 105
miles in 1990, and has averaged
near 50 miles the past few
years. NHC director Bill Read
stated in a interview this week
that had Hurricane Irene come
along before the recent
improvements in track
forecasting, hurricane warnings
would have been issued for the
entire Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina coasts. At an
average cost of $1 million per
mile of coast over-warned, this
would have cost over $700
million. We can credit the
investments made in hurricane
research, improved satellites,
and better computer models for
the majority of this
improvement. When we consider
that government funding for
hurricane research has averaged
$20 million per year during much
of the past two decades, the
roughly $200 million spent on
hurricane research over the past
20 years was paid back by over a
factor of three during just one
storm. According to a 2007
presentation at the 61st
Interdepartmental Hurricane
Conference, the improved
hurricane forecasts between 2000
- 2006 resulted in savings of $3
billion compared to what the
forecasts of the 1990s would
have cost.
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Hurricane Irene -
2011-09-09 - below are additional 'links' to Irene wake websites that we
have received from friends ..
http://mmaler.com/2011/08/hurricane-irene-connecticut-shoreline-damage
ALERT
UPDATE: THE ERIE
CANAL LOCK E2 TO E19 WILL REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE
The Erie Canal
between Locks E-19 (Frankfort) and E-2 (Waterford),
will remain closed to all vessels until further
notice. Hurricane Irene caused record flooding in
the Mohawk River and the Canal Corporation is
currently assessing damage to several structures.
Updates will be provided once the full extent of
damage and what efforts are necessary to reopen are
determined. Updates regarding the reopening status
of the Erie Canal will not be available until next
week at the earliest.
For updates and information monitor 1-800-4CANAL4
and
www.canals.ny.gov
Below is from a blog of a looper stuck in Frankfort
MI last month. I've always wondered about the "wave
height" thing. Confusing, but it explains why things
often seem different than predicted.
Bernie
"We are in
Frankfort until the winds and waves calm down. I am
checking how the weather service calculates wave
heights. It turns out that it is the square root of
an average, but in a practical sense, it means that
waves of 2 to 4 feet means there will be waves much
higher than 4 feet. For example, when 2 to 4 feet
seas are forcasted, then 1 of every 10 waves will be
at least 5 feet (about every 2 minutes). And 1 of
every 100 will be at least 6 feet (about every 12
minutes). Finally, 1 of every 1000 waves will be at
least 8 feet (about 120 minutes). Waves are
forcasted up to 8 feet, and that means constantly
encountering 9 and 10 foot waves, with an occasional
16 footer to deal with. There are 5 other loopers
stuck here in Frankfort until the waves and wind lay
down."
Hurricane Irene -
2011-09-06 - this is a note that we received from a friend ..
Thought you might be interested in these pictures of
the damage to the Erie Canal in Upstate NY. Damage
is extensive and a major section of the canal will
be closed for the rest of the year. Quite a few
"Great
Loopers" and other cruisers are caught up in
it:
http://www.tug44.org/flood/hurricane-irene-2011/
Diane and I went through the canal as far as Oswego
11 years ago in our old boat.
Regards, Wayne B
Hurricane Irene -
2011-08-31 - Recovery from the destruction left behind by Hurricane
Irene continues in the mid-Atlantic and New England states today. Irene's storm
surge, winds, and record rains likely did $3 - $6 billion in insured damage to
the U.S., according to AIR-Worldwide. Since actual damages are typically double
insured losses, Irene's total price tag will likely be $6 - $12 billion, making
it one of the top 20 most expensive hurricanes to hit the U.S. Irene will be one
of the most expensive Category 1 hurricanes ever; the record is held by 1972's
Hurricane Agnes, which did $11.8 billion in damage (2010 dollars.) As AIR
Worldwide notes in their press release, part of this damage is due to the costs
of evacuation for the 2 million people that were evacuated. It costs
approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et
al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the
coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina
coast (Whitehead, 2003). So were we over-warned during Irene? Could the costs of
the storm been lower due to better forecasts and fewer evacuations?
Hurricane Irene -
2011-08-30 - Marvin, Over many years I have been receiving and enjoying
your "take" on the weather. But, I never thought I'd be following the news and
your prognostications so closely as I did for Irene. Historically, of course, as
a snowbird I was mostly interested in the safety of D's at Ease in FT Myers. But
Irene was different. The hurricane path was right over our home in Connecticut!
Fortunately, the only damage we sustained was a few downed tree limbs. Thanks
for all you do! Harry
Hurricane Irene -
2011-08-27 -
This was published in the
Abaconian On:Saturday, August 27, 2011
HURRICANE Irene
tore boats from their moorings, ripped roofs off
homes and uprooted trees as she ripped through the
Abacos on Thursday.
Marsh Harbour
residents were thankful the storm came from the
south, and therefore surge did not cause the harbour
to flood, however islands and communities in the
north were hit by surge and suffered flood damage.
Green Turtle Cay
was reportedly badly hit but it was nearly
impossible to make contact with anyone on the island
yesterday as all telephone communications were out
of service, and several utility poles had fallen.
Timothy Roberts, a
reporter for The Abaconian, spoke to residents who
told him the settlement of New Plymouth was flooded
by storm surge, causing damage to buildings in
low-lying areas, such as the well-known home of the
goombay smash, the Blue Bee Bar, which reportedly
held around two feet of water.
Further damage was
done to homes on the north side of the island, which
Mr Roberts said took the brunt of the winds, but
aside from losing shingles, there was no major
destruction to property, he said.
In Man-O-War Cay,
south of Green Turtle, Michael Albury, president of
the Abaco Chamber of Commerce, lost the roof on his
home, and other buildings also suffered wind damage,
according to initial reports.
Hope Town residents
were spared, reporting minimal structural damage to
property, although surge eroded the dune at White
Sound and Abaco Inn ridge in the south end of Elbow
Cay.
Initial reports out
of Great Guana Cay indicate the docks in the Sea of
Abaco were badly damaged, although the marina fared
well.
Flooding struck
coastal communities in Little Abaco in the north,
such as Fox Town, Cedar Harbour and Blackwood, where
Mr Roberts said there is up to four feet of
flooding, and the front street in Coopers Town was
also underwater.
Treasure Cay
suffered flooding, and there was over two feet of
water in Windward Beach, on the eastern side, Mr
Roberts said.
But Patrick Fetch,
general manager of the Treasure Cay resort, said the
area fared well, considering the strength of the
storm.
Around 30 boats in
the resort marina escaped with minor bangs and
scrapes, as the surge did not reach the sea wall at
the resort, although other docks were submerged by a
six to eight foot surge.
He said several
trees, around 30 or 40 years old, were knocked down
in Treasure Cay, along with utility poles, which he
was helping BEC re-erect with the use of a resort
vehicle yesterday.
Around 30 guests
were evacuated before the storm and the resort was
shuttered up well before she hit, so damage was
limited to water damage and broken windows in four
of the 96 hotel rooms.
"During the eye of
the storm it was very spooky," Mr Fetch said.
"No sooner than an
hour and a half it went from 120mph winds to calm
and then back to 120. But it blew all night and
switched gears."
In Marsh Harbour at
least half a dozen sailboats broke loose from their
moorings and landed on rocks, and banks, and a boat
belonging to a fisherman from Cherokee broke loose
and crash landed badly damaged in the Dundas Town
area, west of Marsh Harbour.
A Haitian sloop
that had tied up to the dock at the Marsh Harbour
Marina and Jib Room, badly damaged the dock,
according to local reports, but the harbour was
spared the flooding caused by Hurricane Floyd hit in
1999, and again by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004.
So although coastal
areas of Murphy Town flooded, the inland areas
including the Haitian settlements known as the Mud
and Pigeon Pea, were spared disastrous floods,
locals say.
Many residents of
the Haitian communities were among the 300-plus
residents who made use of public shelters during the
storm, and were relieved to find the damage to their
homes was minimal.
In South Abaco
also, the communities of Cherokee and Sandy Point ,
have reported minimal damage.
And yesterday the
community was out on the streets clearing up.
Lloyd Williams, a
property manager in Marsh Harbour, was impressed by
the efforts everyone made to repair the community
after the storm.
"Everybody was out
there early this morning cleaning the streets,
cleaning each other's yards, and it was amazing to
see the camaraderie," he said.
"We are lucky it
did not pick up to that really high category four,
and the angle that it came on saved us, because it
didn't come straight from the open ocean.
"Sometimes a few
miles in a hurricane makes a big difference."
Hurricane Irene -
2011-08-28 - 05:30 pm - New York appears to escape the worst of Irene
- Tropical Storm Irene unleashed furious wind and rain on New York on Sunday and
sent seawater surging into the Manhattan streets .. but the city appeared to
escape the worst fears of an urban disaster ..
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Hurricane
Irene-NOT !! - a few pics
from the Tropical Storm that
swept through Manhattan this
morning !! ..
the only other time 8th Ave has
been so void of traffic and
people was during a blizzard ..
images by Bryan Peterson ..
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2011-08-28 - 09:30 am
- Hurricane
Irene report from close to ground zero - just received this note from
Wayne and Diane (Cape Coral),
aboard the Long Legged Lady, Stamford, CT .. "We
are securely docked in Stamford, CT behind the (closed) hurricane barrier so no
worries regarding storm surge. We've had heavy, driving rain since last night
with strong easterly winds gusting to 40 kts at times. The eye is just now
moving into lower New York Harbor which is about 50 miles SW of here. Barometric
pressure there is down to 28.59 inches and winds are gusting to 50 kts. The eye
should reach us by about 11:00AM. The Block Island weather buoy, where we were
last week, is reporting 22 ft waves this morning. All the best"
..
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above ..
screenshots of Long Legged Lady
Spot Tracker - "click" on image
for larger size .. or click on
this link for their Spot Tracker
..
http://tinyurl.com/waynebspottrack
..
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Tropical Storm Irene with 65-mph
winds made landfall in New York City at 9 a.m. EDT Sunday ..
Hurricane Irene made landfall Sunday around Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey, around
5:35 a.m. EDT as a minimal category 1 hurricane, with winds near 75 miles per
hour .. Hurricane Irene made its first landfall near Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, just before 8 a.m. EDT Saturday as an 85 mile per hour, category 1
hurricane .. the heaviest rains have shifted into eastern New York and New
England while strong wind gusts continue for D.C. and Maryland northward. Flash
flooding and river flooding is widespread. The center of now Tropical Storm
Irene with 60-mph winds will track from along the New York and New England
border to western Maine by early Monday and then exit the U.S. into eastern
Canada. Irene will steadily weaken and then turn post-tropical ..
strong wind gusts and wet ground will continue to bring down trees into power
lines and possibly buildings. Extensive power outages will continue to develop
and power may be off in some areas for an extended period ..
water levels are expected to rise as much as 4 to 8 feet above normal high
tides, with large and destructive waves on top of that risen water level .. the
rise in water level will bring coastal and river flooding (in tidal rivers) that
will be most pronounced during high tides due to high astronomical tides in the
hurricane warning area described below ..
dangerous surf and deadly rip currents can also be expected along the coast;
although conditions will be subsiding further south, much of the East Coast will
continue to get swells generated by Irene that will enhance the threat of rip
currents even in places that Irene has departed .. in addition to the damaging
winds and coastal flooding from the storm surge, Irene is also a huge flooding
rain maker and rainfall totals over Upstate New York and New England will be
between 4 and 12 inches ..
Tornadoes are possible for Long Island and much of New England into tonight ..
Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Chincoteague, Virginia, north to
Eastport, Maine; and southern parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ..
2011-08-28 - 05:10 am - Irene beating up Virginia Coast, Delmarva
- this is a storm that poses an extraordinary threat and is increasingly
affecting the eastern Mid-Atlantic and
will then target eastern New York and New England over the next 24 to 36
hours .. Hurricane Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina, just
before 8 a.m. EDT as an 85 mile per hour, category 1 hurricane ..
Irene is still a category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 miles per hour, as of 2
a.m. Eastern Time Sunday .. these hurricane-force winds are in a relatively
small area about 125 miles east of the center, even though Irene has a very
large wind field overall ..
above - Irene heading for
New York
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the center of Irene is located about 15 miles south-southeast of Ocean City,
Maryland, or about 195 miles south-southwest of New York City, and is moving to
the north-northeast near 17 miles per hour .. the center of Irene is forecast to
ride up the coast with an eventual landfall anticipated on Sunday along Long
Island then on the other side of Long Island Sound into Southern New England as
a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm.
Tropical-storm-force winds will overspread the entire Mid-Atlantic Coast through
the overnight hours tonight and early morning hours Sunday morning, with
hurricane-force winds--especially in gusts--near the coast .. Tropical storm and
possibly a few hurricane force gusts will make their way into southeastern New
York (including New York City) and Long Island by Sunday morning, and into
southern parts of New England .. winds at the higher levels of high-rise
buildings will be greater than those at street level outside of those buildings
.. once Irene moves inland, tropical-storm-force winds should spread across much
of New England and the Hudson Valley on Sunday into Sunday night ..
From the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Cod, a water level rise of 4 to
8 feet, with higher waves, can be expected ..
More dangerous and record coastal flooding is possible .. dangerous surf, deadly
rip currents, beach erosion, and ocean over wash can be expected from North
Carolina northward as Irene tracks northward ..
Hurricane warnings are in effect
from Cape Lookout, North Carolina, north to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts: this
includes Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck Sounds, Delaware Bay, Chesapeake Bay
south of Drum Point, New York City, Philadelphia, Long Island, Long Island
Sound, coastal parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island, Block Island, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket ..
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point
northward and the Tidal Potomac (including Washington, D.C., and Baltimore); and
the New England Coast north of Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, to Eastport,
Maine, and then into southern parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia .. the
winds coupled with wet ground will continue to bring down trees and power lines
.. trees could fall on houses causing major damage .. power outages of several
days, and possibly weeks, are possible along Irene's path .. as Irene tracks up
the Eastern Seaboard, tornadoes are possible .. in addition to the destructive
winds and coastal flooding from the storm surge, Irene is also a flooding rain
maker and rainfall totals from eastern North Carolina to the Hudson Valley and
New England could reach 6 to locally 20 inches ..
Elsewhere In The Tropics
- I have a feeling that Irene will not be the last hurricane to threaten and
impact the Caribbean and United States this Hurricane Season, so let’s take a
look at what may be coming in the next week or so ..
Satellite imagery this morning showed no areas in the Atlantic Basin that is
likely to develop, however, satellite views from the African continent reveal
that there are three tropical disturbances that will need to be watched closely
once they move into the far eastern Atlantic next week. The latest GFS and
European model guidance are becoming more and more consistent in their forecasts
that one to perhaps two of these disturbances will develop as early as the
middle part of next week. All of our Crown Weather friends in the Lesser
Antilles should watch these disturbances closely as they could pose a threat by
next weekend ..
Some of the global model guidance, like the European model, is hinting at some
sort of tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico next weekend. This
possible development seems to generate along the tail end of a frontal system.
It is a scenario that will need to be monitored very closely given that ocean
water temperatures are very warm and a spin up tropical cyclone at the tail end
of a front seems plausible ..
2011-08-27 - 04:20 pm -
Lady Liberty not in danger from Irene - the
Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady
stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal.
However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the
statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at
the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is
roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a
mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate
120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of
toppling the Statue of Liberty. Winds from Irene should stay below 80 mph at 300
feet, and not pose a threat to the Statue of Liberty ..
2011-08-27 - 04:10 pm - Irene hits North Carolina - Hurricane
Irene roared ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 07:30 am this morning
.. the Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting
to 110 mph at 7:19am, and a trained spotter on Atlantic Beach measured sustained
winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured
80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall .. winds at the Cape Lookout,
North Carolina buoy, which the eye passed directly over, peaked at 67 mph as
Irene made landfall .. at 10am EDT, top winds observed at Cape Hatteras on the
Outer Banks of North Carolina were 53 mph, gusting to 73 mph .. winds are rising
now along the coast of Virginia, with sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 62
mph observed at 10 am EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Satellite loops show a large
but deteriorating storm with dry air intruding to the southwest .. the radar
presentation of Irene (above) visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is very impressive--Irene
is dropping torrential rains over a huge area ..
Storm surge damage from Irene
- the storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the greatest
damage, and this will be a historic coastal flooding event for many regions of
the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A storm surge of 8.5 feet was reported this
morning in North Harlow, NC, and three feet in New Bern, NC. Significant wave
heights (the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves) reached 27 feet at
Onslow Bay, NC this morning, and wave heights along the New Jersey shore Sunday
morning during the time of high tide are expected to be 15 - 20 feet, according
to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 2.) A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is
expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide.
With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be
tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a
major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8
foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls
protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide.
High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY
Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of
Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide
Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall
(which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely
spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in
southern Manhattan. Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog has links to a storm surge
animation for New York City done by the SUNY Stonybrook group. Climate Central
has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five
feet in elevation. Storm surge heights of up to eight feet are predicted in
Western Long Island Sound, and 3 - 6 feet along much of the New England coast
from New York to Massachusetts. This is going to be a damaging coastal flooding
event for this stretch of coast, though perhaps not as damaging as the one New
Jersey will experience ..
Inland flooding damage from
Irene - inland flash flooding and river flooding from torrential rains are a
major concern. Latest radar-estimated rainfall amounts in North Carolina already
exceed ten inches in some locations. Cedar Island, NC has reported 7.21" as of
11am EDT, and a 100 mile-wide swath of 8+ inches of rain will likely fall from
Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City, and
into Vermont and New Hampshire during the next two days. Destructive river
flooding will be a significant danger from New Jersey northwards to Southeast
New York, where soils are saturated and run-off will be the greatest ..
Elsewhere In The Tropics -
I
have a feeling that Irene will not be the last
hurricane to threaten and impact the Caribbean and
United States this Hurricane Season, so let’s take a
look at what may be coming in the next week or so ..
Satellite imagery this morning showed no areas in
the Atlantic Basin that is likely to develop,
however, satellite views from the African continent
reveal that there are three tropical disturbances
that will need to be watched closely once they move
into the far eastern Atlantic next week .. the
latest GFS and European model guidance are becoming
more and more consistent in their forecasts that one
to perhaps two of these disturbances will develop as
early as the middle part of next week .. anyone in
the Lesser Antilles should watch these disturbances
closely as they could pose a threat by next weekend
..
some
of the global model guidance, like the European
model, is hinting at some sort of tropical
development in the northern Gulf of Mexico next
weekend .. this possible development seems to
generate along the tail end of a frontal system. It
is a scenario that will need to be monitored very
closely given that ocean water temperatures are very
warm and a spin up tropical cyclone at the tail end
of a front seems plausible ..
2011-08-27 - 04:10 am - Irene heading to North Carolina -
as of 03:00 am Hurricane Irene was located at 33.7N, 76.5W, 60 miles south of
Cape Lookout .. it was moving north-northeast at 14 mph with maximum sustained
winds of 90 mph, making it a Category 1
storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale .. Irene has a minimum central pressure
of 952 mb .. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the US Atlantic coast from the
Little River inlet in North Carolina to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. Tornado
watches are also in effect for the North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland coast ..
Track Forecast - Irene is
forecast to make landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday morning as a
category 1 storm with sustained winds around 90 mph ..
I believe that Irene's center of
circulation will make landfall somewhere between Cape Lookout and Okracoke on
the Outer Banks around 9-10 am .. Irene should then move roughly north,
along the mid-Atlantic coastline before making landfall in western Long Island.
However, it is important to not focus solely on the track forecast. Irene is a
large storm with a large windfield and equally large areas of storms and showers
.. it's impact will be felt over a wide swath of the northeastern US ..
Irene and Flooding - six
to ten inches of rain are possible along Irene's track from North Carolina north
into New England, with 15 inches possible in isolated areas. Radar estimates
indicate at least 5 inches have already fallen near Morehead City, NC. As a
result, flooding is very likely .. the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
has issued their Significant River Flood Outlook for the next five days shown in
figure 4. HPC thinks that river flooding from the Delmarva peninsula to
northwestern Maine is likely, while river flooding in much of the rest of the
northeastern US is possible ..
Impacts - Tropical storm
forces winds are occuring at Cape Lookout now, with hurricane force winds
expected on the North Carolina coast later today. Use this Wundermap to keep
track of how the winds are behaving around the North Carolina coastline ..
within the hurricane warning area in North Carolina, storm surge is expected to
be 6-11 feet above ground .. this is our storm surge forecast map. To see how
high the tides are running, NOAA has an excellent page collecting all of the
relevant tide gauges ..
people living on the the east coast of the US from the Carolinas to Cape Cod
should continue monitoring Irene and be in the process of finishing their
hurricane preparations. If you have not started preparing for this storm, start
immediately. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it, unless it is
unsafe to do so. Irene will be a large storm, impacting areas far from the storm
center track ..
2011-08-26 - 13:10 am - Expected Impacts & Approximate Timing ..
Eastern North Carolina and
the Outer Banks of North Carolina - Tropical storm force winds will reach
the southern portions of the eastern North Carolina coast by early this evening
with deteriorating weather conditions expected tonight across all of eastern
North Carolina. Bands of heavy rainfall will rotate across eastern North
Carolina throughout the night tonight with tropical storm force winds spreading
inland west of Highway 17 by late tonight. Hurricane conditions will reach
southern parts of eastern North Carolina during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday
morning.
During Saturday, hurricane conditions are likely along and east of Highway 17
throughout the day with winds exceeding 100 mph along the immediate coast. A
storm surge of 6 to 12 feet with locally higher amounts are likely. Total
rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are likely throughout eastern North Carolina
with widespread inland flash flooding likely. Conditions will slowly improve
during Saturday night and into early Sunday morning.
If you have been told to evacuate by your local emergency management officials,
please do so.
Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and New York - a storm surge of
4 to 8 feet above ground level is expected across southern parts of Chesapeake
Bay and the eastern shore of the Delmarva Peninsula. A storm surge of 3 to 6
feet above ground level can be expected along the Jersey Shore. Hurricane force
winds are expected right along the immediate coast of New Jersey and across the
Delmarva Peninsula from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Total rainfall
amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected across this entire area with widespread
flash flooding likely.
I urge everyone that if you are told to evacuate by local emergency management
officials, please do so.
Southern New England - Irene is expected to have a very significant and
damaging impact on southern New England. The exact track of Irene across New
England will have large implications on how strong the winds will be and how
high the storm surge will be. The latest model guidance has a track that takes
Irene across eastern Connecticut and western Rhode Island north-northeastward
into central Massachusetts in between Route 495 and 395.
A classic heavy rain event, called a predecessor rain event (PRE), will occur on
Saturday night across all of southern New England. The main impact from Irene
will occur from Sunday into Sunday evening with slowly improving weather
conditions after midnight Sunday night.
Heavy rain with moderate to major flooding is likely across all of New England.
6 to 12 inches of rainfall is expected across southern New England from Saturday
night to Sunday night. Locally higher amounts are possible across western
Massachusetts and western Connecticut. Across northern New England, 6 to 12
inches of rain with local amounts of up to 15 inches are likely from Sunday
afternoon to midday Monday. Moderate to major urban and river flooding is likely
across all of New England.
Very strong winds of up to hurricane force are likely across eastern
Connecticut, much of Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Widespread power outages and tree damage seems likely and extended power outages
lasting for days may be possible across much of southern New England. Everyone
across southern New England should be prepared for these possible extended power
outages.
A large and potentially destructive storm surge is possible mainly along the
south coast of southern New England for both the Sunday morning and Sunday
evening high tides. Everyone along the south coast of southern New England needs
to prepare for the possibility of up to a 10 to 15 foot storm surge depending on
the exact time Irene makes landfall in relation to the tide level.
2011-08-26 - 06:30 am -
Warderick Wells Bahamas ..
good news this morning .. two
out of three boats that were left on the Mooring Balls made it .. the one that
didn't make it was a boat at the park used to house researchers when they came
down to work. It wasn't expected to make it ..
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above -
boats at Warderick Wells .. click on image for
larger size |
2011-08-26 - 05:10 am -
Irene pulling away from the Bahamas .. during
the overnight hours Thursday night/early Friday morning,
Hurricane Irene weakened slightly, and
now is a high-end category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale; however, Irene is expected
to re-strengthen into a category 3 storm later today .. as of 5 a.m.
Eastern Time Friday, the center of Hurricane Irene is located about 420 miles
south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has winds near 110 miles per
hour, and was moving to the north at 14 miles per hour .. some of the outer rain
bands from Irene have been falling across Florida early this morning, with
additional rain bands expected to begin to spread up the coast into coastal
parts of Georgia and the Carolinas today ..
rain and wind should increase steadily in the coastal Carolinas late today into
tonight as the center of Irene closes in on the North Carolina Coast .. the
center of Irene is expected to make
landfall as a borderline category 2 or 3 hurricane late Saturday morning
or early Saturday afternoon in North Carolina, most likely between Morehead City
and Hatteras, but tropical storm conditions are possible as far inland as I-95
in North Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible as far as 40 miles from
the coast .. Hurricane conditions are expected for much of Saturday along the
Outer Banks, with parts of Highway 12 likely to be washed out from storm surge
and waves on top of that surge .. rain and wind will begin to pick up in eastern
Virginia late tonight and (more so) on Saturday, with hurricane conditions
possible along the coast, with tropical storm conditions possible as far inland
as I-95 .. rain and wind will begin to pick up on Saturday into Saturday night
northward into New York and New England.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Saturday night into Sunday along the coast
from the Delmarva Peninsula to the Southern New England Coast, including Long
Island; tropical storm conditions are possible further inland .. conditions in
the Mid-Atlantic and New England are expected to be unlike what many have
experienced in these areas as far as heavy rain and strong winds are concerned
.. flooding and wind-related damage (including downed trees, limbs, power lines,
power outages, roof, window, and siding damage) can be expected from North
Carolina to New England by the time Irene moves away on Monday ..
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Grand Bahama and the Abaco Islands in
the Bahamas, and from Little River Inlet (near the North Carolina/South Carolina
border) northward to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the Albemarle, Pamlico,
and Currituck Sounds, Delaware Bay, and Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point ..
Hurricane watches are in effect from north of Sandy Hook, New Jersey, to the
mouth of the Merrimack River (near the Massachusetts/New Hampshire border),
including Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha?s Vineyard, and
Nantucket .. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the South Carolina Coast
from Edisto Beach north to Little River Inlet (near the North Carolina border),
and Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point and the Tidal Potomac .. additional
watches and warnings are expected up the coast into New England at some point
today ..
another tropical wave is southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Conditions
may allow for development of this system in the next few days, so we will keep
tracking it .. there is plenty of time to watch this one.
2011-08-25 - 17:10 am - Irene a Category 3 has passed thru the Bahamas
and is now headed northwest towards the US - Compass Cay ..
just got an update on Compass
Cay .. thanks to Bob and Mel (ISTABOA) .. Tucker has called said that all
was good .. he said they had 130 MPH winds and that none of the boats, the
marina, or the houses were damaged .. amazing !! .. then his phone died .. tried
to call back, but got a busy signal .. good news, very good news ..
click on above image
for photo album
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2011-08-25 -
Staniel Cay Yacht Club -
Hurricane Irene images from Staniel
Cay Yacht Club Exumas Bahamas ..here
are a few pre- and post-Irene shots
of the club .. the Staniel Cay Yacht
Club is protected from the East but
is wide open from the West ..
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2011-08-25 - 13:10 am -
Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas headed northwest - Irene has made it
past the Nassau area and is now on its way to the Marsh Harbour area in the
Abacos .. Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing
hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked
Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding
.. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall
today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau .. winds there were sustained
at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will
rise to 50 - 55 mph later today .. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and
will be sending live updates through the day today .. winds on Grand Bahama
Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning,
and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon .. Grand Bahama
will also miss the brunt of the storm .. Irene is visible on Miami long-range
radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast
Florida today ..
Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner
eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this
process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today
for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to
Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side .. this is due to
upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear
along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong
enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it
today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely
scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today
or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay
moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very
warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to
aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene
growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global
model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a
Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern
North Carolina.
Staniel Cay Yacht Club ..
here's a brief video shot at 8am this morning ..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeQQ2r-h5-c
.. the heavy stuff had already passed but as you can see the weather is
still pretty severe. The marina is no longer under water but our check-in hut is
going to be our indoor swimming pool for a while !!
above - the scene in
Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today ..
Track forecast for Irene - the models have edged their tracks westwards
in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that
Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has
increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly
west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on
the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to
continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire
mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for
a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge
difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland
over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this
will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a
hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the
Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is
predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and
Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island
would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there ..
2011-08-25 - 10:30 am - Irene tracks through the Bahamas
- just got a note from Jim and Kim in
the Cambridge Cay (Exumas) area .. "Irene
has passed but the winds are still kicking. We are hoping to get out and check
out the island this afternoon. We won't be able to check the boat out until
tomorrow at the earliest. It was a tough night. I have heard from Little Pipe,
LHP & Soldier and everyone is ok." .. we also heard from Staniel Cay Yacht Club
that they made it thru Irene and now have the mess to deal with before they will
be able to reopen .. we have yet to hear how Tucker is doing at Compass Cay ..
according to Bob and Mel (ISTABOA) their internet server stopped
transmitting at 04:00 am ..
2011-08-25 - 05:50 am - Irene tracks through the Bahamas - all of
the models continue to track Hurricane Irene through the Bahamas, keeping this
storm well to the east of Southwest Florida .. Irene will continue to gain
strength as it moves through the warm waters of the Atlantic and there isn't
much wind shear to tear this storm apart, either .. Hurricane watches and
warnings are posted throughout the Bahamas .. the official forecast cone from
the National Hurricane Center is now off the other side of the state ..the
cone
has consistently been shifting eastward with each update for the last couple of
days .. that is good news for Southwest Florida as well as the East Coast of the
US .. for those in the path of Irene, this will likely be our first major
hurricane of the season in the next 24 hours ..
here in Fort Myers even with the
track off the other side of the state we could still get a couple of breezy days
with passing showers on Thursday and Friday ..
Irene will likely be very large and very dangerous and the threat is high from
the Carolinas to Maine .. this could end up being one of the costliest
hurricanes on record ..
there is a tropical wave in the
eastern Atlantic with the potential for some development in the next couple of
days, but is it of no threat to land .. another tropical wave is southeast of
the Cape Verde Islands .. conditions may allow for development of this system in
the next few days, so we will keep tracking it ..
Track Forecast - Irene is
forecast to move to the northwest, passing over the northwest Bahamas by
Thursday evening, then curving to the northeast. Irene then makes landfall in
the US near or at the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon, then traveling along the
mid-Atlantic coastline of the US. Sunday, Irene may make secondary landfall
anywhere from New Jersey to Long Island and the southern New England coastline
.. in my opinion, New York City may be significantly impacted by Irene .. it is
also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large,
affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical
storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from
Irene's center on Friday afternoon ..
NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a Category 4 storm (winds faster than 130
mph) by Thursday morning .. as Irene moves northward into cooler water, the
intensity is expected to drop slowly to a Category 2 storm before making
landfall in the Outer Banks ..
Hurricane Irene -
2011-08-25 - 02:30 am - Irene tracks through the Bahamas - as of
02:00 am Hurricane Irene was located at 24.2N, 76.0W, 105 miles east-southeast
of Nassau or 760 miles south of Cape Hatteras .. it was moving northwest at 12
mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the
Saffir-Simpson scale .. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 950 mb.
Hurricane force winds can be found up to 70 miles from Irene's center, and
tropical storm force winds can be found out to 255 miles from the storm's center
..
Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamas. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches will likely be posted for the Carolina coastlines later this
morning .. at this time, Dare County Emergency Management has issued a mandatory
evacuation order for all visitors in their county. Dare County Schools will also
be closed Thursday and Friday ..
above - Staniel Cay Yacht
Club Bahamas - as
of midnight last night, Christina, David, Bushman, and Giselle look to be
holding up pretty well! .. they left a Goombay Smash out front for Irene ..
2011-08-24 - 11:00 am -
Irene tracks through the Bahamas - as we write this update Irene is
headed for the Hermitage on Cat Island .. one of our favorite spots in all of
the Bahamas .. we have anchored just below the Heritage a number of times and
have made the walk/clime up to the highest spot in the Bahamas where the
Heritage is located .. it has withstood many Tropical Storms and we are
confidant that it will make it thru Irene also ..
above .. the Heritage the
highest spot in all of the Bahamas ..
above -
Tropical Storm Irene .. five day track ..
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Track Forecast -
Irene is forecast to move to the
north-northwest, passing over all of the Bahama
islands by Thursday evening, at which points it
starts curving to the north. Irene is forecast
to make landfall in the US near Wilmington, NC
Saturday evening. However, it is important to
note that this is not a definitive forecast, the
average forecast error for day 5 is 250 miles.
The timing of Irene's recurvature depends on how
quickly several small troughs of low pressure in
the Northeastern US move to the east. After
Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to the
mid-Atlantic coastline and locations further
north, but it is too early to make a skillful
forecast for those regions.
NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a major
hurricane (winds faster than 110 mph), within 24
hours, then reaching peak intensity at 130 mph
(Category 4 storm) by 8pm EDT Thursday evening
..
Forecast models and adaptive
observations - the different
forecast models are in rough agreement
until Irene nears the Carolinas. The
dynamical hurricane forecasting models,
GFDL and HWRF, have Irene making
landfall near Charleston, SC. NGFDL (a
variant of the GFDL that uses NOGAPS for
background conditions) has landfall near
Morehead City, NC, and the GFS has Irene
crossing the Outer Banks. The UKMET
forecast track splits the difference,
placing Irene near Myrtle Beach, SC at
landfall.
to reduce the model spread, and improve
the track forecast error, the NOAA
Gulfstream IV and an Air Force WC-130J
have been flying dropsonde missions
north of Irene. A dropsonde is an
meteorological instrument package
dropped from a plane that can tell you
the vertical profile of temperature,
pressure, moisture, and winds. By flying
these missions, the dropsondes can
improve all of the numerical weather
prediction models initial picture of the
atmospheres, which improves the
forecast. Also, NHC has asked NWS
offices in the southeastern US that
launch weather balloons to do so every 6
hours instead of the normal 12 hour
frequency.
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